YouGov voting intention, 20 July 2026
Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority — 149 of 650 seats on 23.0%, ahead of Conservative on 21.0% (137 seats).
Hung parliament
Reform UK
23.0%
149 seats
▼ 1.0
Conservative
21.0%
137 seats
▲ 2.0
Labour
20.0%
130 seats
▲ 1.0
Green
14.0%
91 seats
▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
12.0%
78 seats
▼ 1.0
Other
5.0%
33 seats
―
Other parties
5.0%
32 seats
―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
19 seats
―
Plaid Cymru
2.0%
13 seats
―
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 20.0% | 130 |
| Conservative | 21.0% | 137 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.0% | 78 |
| Reform UK | 23.0% | 149 |
| Green | 14.0% | 91 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 19 |
| Plaid Cymru | 2.0% | 13 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 5.0% | 33 |