Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
149 of 650 seats on 23.0%, ahead of Conservative on 21.0% (137 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 20 July 2026
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
23.0%
149 seats▼ 1.0
Conservative
21.0%
137 seats▲ 2.0
Labour
20.0%
130 seats▲ 1.0
Green
14.0%
91 seats▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
12.0%
78 seats▼ 1.0
Other
5.0%
33 seats―
Other parties
5.0%
32 seats―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
19 seats―
Plaid Cymru
2.0%
13 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 13 Jul 2026.
Reform UK23.0%
149 seats
▼ 1.0
Conservative21.0%
137 seats
▲ 2.0
Labour20.0%
130 seats
▲ 1.0
Green14.0%
91 seats
▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats12.0%
78 seats
▼ 1.0
Other5.0%
33 seats
―
SNP3.0%
19 seats
―
Plaid Cymru2.0%
13 seats
―
0%10%20%30%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
20.0%
130
Conservative
21.0%
137
Liberal Democrats
12.0%
78
Reform UK
23.0%
149
Green
14.0%
91
SNP
3.0%
19
Plaid Cymru
2.0%
13
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
5.0%
33
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,683 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).