YouGov voting intention, 29 June 2026
Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority — 156 of 650 seats on 24.0%, ahead of Conservative on 20.0% (130 seats).
Hung parliament
Reform UK
24.0%
156 seats
▼ 1.0
Labour
20.0%
130 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative
20.0%
130 seats
―
Liberal Democrats
13.0%
85 seats
▼ 1.0
Green
13.0%
85 seats
▼ 2.0
Other
6.0%
39 seats
▲ 1.0
Other parties
4.0%
25 seats
―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
19 seats
―
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats
―
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 20.0% | 130 |
| Conservative | 20.0% | 130 |
| Liberal Democrats | 13.0% | 85 |
| Reform UK | 24.0% | 156 |
| Green | 13.0% | 85 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 19 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 6 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 6.0% | 39 |