Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
157 of 650 seats on 24.0%, ahead of Labour on 19.0% (125 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 19 January 2026
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
24.0%
157 seats―
Labour
19.0%
125 seats―
Conservative
18.0%
118 seats▼ 2.0
Green
17.0%
112 seats▲ 3.0
Liberal Democrats
14.0%
92 seats▼ 2.0
SNP
3.0%
20 seats▼ 1.0
Other parties
4.0%
26 seats▲ 1.0
2 more
Other
3.0%
20 seats▲ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 12 Jan 2026.
Reform UK24.0%
157 seats
―
Labour19.0%
125 seats
―
Conservative18.0%
118 seats
▼ 2.0
Green17.0%
112 seats
▲ 3.0
Liberal Democrats14.0%
92 seats
▼ 2.0
SNP3.0%
20 seats
▼ 1.0
Other3.0%
20 seats
▲ 1.0
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
19.0%
125
Conservative
18.0%
118
Liberal Democrats
14.0%
92
Reform UK
24.0%
157
Green
17.0%
112
SNP
3.0%
20
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
3.0%
20
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,686 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).