Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
164 of 650 seats on 25.0%, ahead of Labour on 21.0% (138 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 26 January 2026
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
25.0%
164 seats▲ 1.0
Labour
21.0%
138 seats▲ 2.0
Conservative
17.0%
112 seats▼ 1.0
Green
16.0%
105 seats▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
14.0%
92 seats―
SNP
3.0%
20 seats―
Other parties
3.0%
19 seats▼ 1.0
2 more
Other
2.0%
13 seats▼ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 19 Jan 2026.
Reform UK25.0%
164 seats
▲ 1.0
Labour21.0%
138 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative17.0%
112 seats
▼ 1.0
Green16.0%
105 seats
▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats14.0%
92 seats
―
SNP3.0%
20 seats
―
Other2.0%
13 seats
▼ 1.0
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
21.0%
138
Conservative
17.0%
112
Liberal Democrats
14.0%
92
Reform UK
25.0%
164
Green
16.0%
105
SNP
3.0%
20
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
2.0%
13
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,761 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).