Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
156 of 650 seats on 24.0%, ahead of Conservative on 20.0% (130 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 12 January 2026
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
24.0%
156 seats▼ 2.0
Conservative
20.0%
130 seats▲ 1.0
Labour
19.0%
124 seats▲ 2.0
Liberal Democrats
16.0%
104 seats―
Green
14.0%
91 seats▼ 1.0
SNP
4.0%
26 seats―
Other parties
3.0%
19 seats―
2 more
Other
2.0%
13 seats―
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 05 Jan 2026.
Reform UK24.0%
156 seats
▼ 2.0
Conservative20.0%
130 seats
▲ 1.0
Labour19.0%
124 seats
▲ 2.0
Liberal Democrats16.0%
104 seats
―
Green14.0%
91 seats
▼ 1.0
SNP4.0%
26 seats
―
Other2.0%
13 seats
―
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
19.0%
124
Conservative
20.0%
130
Liberal Democrats
16.0%
104
Reform UK
24.0%
156
Green
14.0%
91
SNP
4.0%
26
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
2.0%
13
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,640 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).