Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
169 of 650 seats on 26.0%, ahead of Conservative on 19.0% (124 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 05 January 2026
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
26.0%
169 seats▲ 1.0
Conservative
19.0%
124 seats―
Labour
17.0%
111 seats▼ 3.0
Liberal Democrats
16.0%
104 seats▲ 1.0
Green
15.0%
97 seats―
SNP
4.0%
26 seats▲ 1.0
Other parties
3.0%
19 seats―
2 more
Other
2.0%
13 seats―
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 22 Dec 2025.
Reform UK26.0%
169 seats
▲ 1.0
Conservative19.0%
124 seats
―
Labour17.0%
111 seats
▼ 3.0
Liberal Democrats16.0%
104 seats
▲ 1.0
Green15.0%
97 seats
―
SNP4.0%
26 seats
▲ 1.0
Other2.0%
13 seats
―
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%40%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
17.0%
111
Conservative
19.0%
124
Liberal Democrats
16.0%
104
Reform UK
26.0%
169
Green
15.0%
97
SNP
4.0%
26
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
2.0%
13
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,760 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).