YouGov voting intention, 18 August 2025
Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority — 182 of 650 seats on 28.0%, ahead of Labour on 21.0% (137 seats).
Hung parliament
Reform UK
28.0%
182 seats
―
Labour
21.0%
137 seats
―
Conservative
18.0%
117 seats
▲ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
15.0%
98 seats
▼ 1.0
Green
10.0%
65 seats
―
Other
4.0%
26 seats
▼ 1.0
Other parties
4.0%
25 seats
―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
19 seats
―
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats
―
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 21.0% | 137 |
| Conservative | 18.0% | 117 |
| Liberal Democrats | 15.0% | 98 |
| Reform UK | 28.0% | 182 |
| Green | 10.0% | 65 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 19 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 6 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 4.0% | 26 |