Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
169 of 650 seats on 26.0%, ahead of Labour on 24.0% (156 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 07 July 2025
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
26.0%
169 seats―
Labour
24.0%
156 seats―
Conservative
16.0%
104 seats▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
15.0%
98 seats▼ 1.0
Green
11.0%
72 seats▲ 1.0
SNP
4.0%
26 seats▲ 1.0
Other parties
4.0%
25 seats▲ 1.0
2 more
Other
3.0%
19 seats▲ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 30 Jun 2025.
Reform UK26.0%
169 seats
―
Labour24.0%
156 seats
―
Conservative16.0%
104 seats
▼ 1.0
Liberal Democrats15.0%
98 seats
▼ 1.0
Green11.0%
72 seats
▲ 1.0
SNP4.0%
26 seats
▲ 1.0
Other3.0%
19 seats
▲ 1.0
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%40%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
24.0%
156
Conservative
16.0%
104
Liberal Democrats
15.0%
98
Reform UK
26.0%
169
Green
11.0%
72
SNP
4.0%
26
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
3.0%
19
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,780 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).