Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 184 of 650 seats on 28.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 24.0% (157 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
28.0%
184 seats
―
Reform UK
24.0%
157 seats
▲ 1.0
Conservative
17.0%
112 seats
▼ 3.0
Liberal Democrats
10.0%
66 seats
▲ 2.0
Green
10.0%
66 seats
▲ 1.0
Other
6.0%
39 seats
▲ 5.0
Other parties
4.0%
26 seats
―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
20 seats
―
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats
―
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 28.0% | 184 |
| Conservative | 17.0% | 112 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.0% | 66 |
| Reform UK | 24.0% | 157 |
| Green | 10.0% | 66 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 20 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 6 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 6.0% | 39 |