The UN refugee agency UNHCR says a “troubling” humanitarian and displacement picture is taking shape as the war expands across the region.

Speaking to CNN, UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch warned that as fighting escalates “we could see more human misery and more people forced to leave their homes”.

Baloch said Iranian authorities estimate more than 100,000 people may have left Tehran in the first two days of the conflict, but he cautioned that figure is likely an underestimate.

UNHCR is also increasingly concerned about spillover beyond Iran. Baloch said the organisation is seeing “thousands of people on the move” in Lebanon, with UNHCR estimates suggesting around 96,000 people are sheltering in more than 440 collective shelters inside the country.

He added that the agency is worried about the welfare of around 1.65 million Afghan refugees still hosted in Iran, as well as Syrians returning from Lebanon who may be crossing borders without a safe place to go.

UNHCR says it has declared the situation a major humanitarian emergency and is scaling up its response — but is calling for increased international support to meet growing needs in the coming days.