The OBR's oil and gas forecast includes expected production from new fields such as Rosebank but does not treat Rosebank as a separate assumption, according to PA copy carried by the Scotsman.
PA reports that the projection combines production from existing fields with the North Sea Transition Authority's estimate for new fields "such as Rosebank". The OBR expects production to fall by around 10% a year between 2027 and 2031. If no new fields are approved, including Rosebank, the decline would be around 14% a year.
According to PA, the OBR forecasts £5.1bn from oil and gas taxes in 2026-27, falling to £1.9bn by 2028-29 and "close to zero" by 2031-32 once the Energy Profits Levy expires. The OBR chair, Professor Jonathan Haskel, has said oil and gas's near-term contribution to the Treasury will be "really small numbers".
This bears on the shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie's claim that the forecasts assume Rosebank's approval. On PA's account, that is only partly right. Rosebank sits within a broader estimate for new fields rather than as a standalone assumption, and the reporting does not put a figure on its share.
PA also carries the energy minister Baroness Curran's remark in the Lords that the OBR "will have to republish the figures if Rosebank does not go ahead".