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Iran Update, September 21, 2026

understandingwar.org 22 September 2026 at 21:25 View original article →

The original link is the material being checked. It may contain false or misleading claims — we link for transparency, not endorsement.

88/100
Verdict High Trust Highly Reliable – Attributed Open-Source Analysis with Clearly Labelled Assessments

The submitted text is an authentic excerpt of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) / Critical Threats Project (CTP) 'Iran Update, September 21, 2026', published at criticalthreats.org.

28 checks out 2 disputed ? 10 unverified
Full analysis The complete summary

The submitted text is an authentic excerpt of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) / Critical Threats Project (CTP) 'Iran Update, September 21, 2026', published at criticalthreats.org. Targeted research confirms the great majority of its reportable factual claims against independent primary and secondary sources dated 19–22 September 2026: Trump's decision to hold off on striking Houthi targets after a Saudi appeal (Axios, Haaretz/NYT-sourced reporting, Euronews); the reported IRGC visit to newly captured Houthi coastal areas near Mokha and Bab al Mandeb, including tunnelling and radar discussions involving Zuqar Island (Asharq Al-Awsat, Ajel, Jerusalem Post, all citing the same two Houthi military sources reported by AFP); Houthi Political Bureau member Mohamed al Bukhaiti's statement to AP that the group will spare all states in the strait except Saudi Arabia; the US State Department's 19 September regional security alerts citing 'potential for unforeseen escalation'; the Fox News exclusive on a 44-page Russian-language 2024–2026 cooperation plan with Iran; Iranian Intelligence Ministry claims of counter-'terrorist' operations in Piranshahr and elsewhere; the killing of a law-enforcement officer near Iranshahr on 21 September; Yemeni government forces repelling Houthi advances west of Taiz; and the 'Sovereignty Law' circulating within Iraq's Shia Coordination Framework (Shafaq News). Contextual background claims (Qassem Basir specifications, Iranian cluster-munition use against Israel in March–April 2026, the Shetab–Mir link-up in 2024, Russian wartime materiel and satellite-imagery support to Iran, US strikes on Houthi radars during Operation Rough Rider) are also corroborated. Weaknesses are limited and mostly definitional rather than factual: several load-bearing items rest on single-sourced or anonymous reporting that the author correctly flags as 'reportedly'; Rezaei's own assertions (a cluster-munition anti-ship missile fired 'near' the USS George Washington on 5 September; that Iraq and five other states snubbed Iran and Oman) are unverifiable claims by an interested party and are, correctly, attributed rather than asserted; the interview is dated 20 September in the text while at least one outlet (RFE/RL) records Al Jazeera publication on 19 September, matching the article's own footnote URLs; the 30 September Iraqi disarmament deadline is contested by the Iraqi PM's own advisers and has reportedly since slipped toward June 2027; and the claim that cluster munitions were used against Muwaffaq Salti Air Base specifically on 8 September could not be independently confirmed. The piece contains explicit policy-normative language ('unacceptable for US national security interests', 'surrender to Iranian demands') consistent with ISW-CTP's known US-policy orientation, but analysis is typographically and syntactically separated from reporting. Overall: high factual reliability, transparent sourcing discipline, moderate institutional viewpoint bias, negligible emotional manipulation.

What checked out (28)
  • The document is a genuine ISW/CTP product: 'Iran Update, September 21, 2026' is published on criticalthreats.org with wording matching the submitted text verbatim (https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-21-2026).
  • Trump considered and then held off on ordering strikes against the Houthis over the weekend of 19–20 September 2026, per two US officials cited by Axios (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/21/trump-houthis-yemen-saudi-bin-salman) and NYT-sourced reporting relayed by Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post.
  • The trigger was an appeal by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; Trump reportedly instructed the Pentagon to prepare airstrikes after a call with MBS on Thursday 17 September, then reversed course as aircraft were being prepared (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-909202; https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2026-09-21/ty-article/.premium/report-trump-backtracked-after-ordering-strikes-on-houthis-at-saudis-request/000001a0-c376-d286-adff-d7f670840000).
  • Trump held a phone call with Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al Alimi and made no direct pledge of military support, per one Yemeni and one Western source (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-21/trump-in-call-with-yemen-president-did-not-pledge-military-support-against-houthis-say-sources; https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5321027-trump-yemen%E2%80%99s-alimi-discuss-bab-al-mandeb-developments).
  • The United States has expanded intelligence and targeting support to Saudi Arabia, including more than 100 US military advisers on the ground (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/10/politics/us-military-support-saudi-arabia-houthi-iran-yemen; https://us.cnn.com/2026/09/19/politics/frustration-houthis-saudi-arabia-iran).
  • Two Houthi military sources reported that IRGC experts visited the Bab al Mandeb area, oversaw tunnel excavation in hills overlooking Mokha, and discussed installing radars near Mokha and on Zuqar Island (https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5320265-report-iranian-revolutionary-guards-experts-visit-bab-al-mandeb-install-radars; https://english.ajel.sa/world/wl04f3kw9; https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-909132).
  • The Houthis seized the port city of Mokha and adjacent Red Sea coastal territory and islands on 9–11 September 2026 (https://www.npr.org/2026/09/11/g-s1-142822/houthis-red-sea-port; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/10/yemens-houthis-seize-strategic-red-sea-city-of-mocha; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Mocha_(2026)).
  • Houthi Political Bureau member Mohamed al Bukhaiti told AP that the group is not targeting the United States or any other nation in the strait, with the sole exception of Saudi Arabia, and that Washington had reached out to the group (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-backed-houthi-rebels-warn-against-joining-saudi-arabia-in-yemens-growing-civil-war; https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/iran-backed-houthi-rebels-warn-joining-saudi-arabia-136602219).
  • The US State Department issued Middle East security alerts on 19 September 2026 warning of a complex security environment with 'potential for unforeseen escalation' (https://ae.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-mission-united-arab-emirates-september-19-2026/; https://sa.usembassy.gov/security-alert-us-mission-saudi-arabia-september-19-2026/; https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-september-19-2026/).
  • Mohsen Rezaei is Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, appointed 9 August 2026, and is a former IRGC commander-in-chief (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608101612; https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-10/mohsen-rezaei-appointed-as-secretary-of-irans-top-security-body).
  • Rezaei gave an Al Jazeera interview around 19–20 September 2026 in which he set out Iranian conditions and messaging on the Strait of Hormuz and the war (https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-live-blog-trump-middle-east/33803414.html; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/what-are-irans-new-conditions-to-end-its-war-with-the-us).
  • Iranian missiles targeted the USS George Washington in early September 2026; CENTCOM confirmed the targeting and evasive manoeuvring while denying any hit, and Iranian media/defence outlets linked the Qassem/Qasem Basir missile to the attack (https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-claims-uss-george-washington-missile-strike/; https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-qasem-basir-first-combat-use-us-nuclear-aircraft-carrier/).
  • The Qassem Basir is a solid-fuelled Iranian medium-range ballistic missile unveiled in early May 2025 with a stated range of at least 1,200 km and electro-optical guidance (https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-unveils-new-solid-fueled-ballistic-missile-with-1200-km-range/; https://www.janes.com/defence-intelligence-insights/defence-news/weapons/iran-unveils-electro-optical-guided-ballistic-missile).
  • Iran repeatedly employed ballistic-missile-delivered cluster munitions against Israeli urban areas in March and April 2026 (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/11/iran-increasingly-employing-cluster-munitions-against-israeli-civilians/; https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/04/iranian-ballistic-missile-cluster-munitions-strike-dozens-of-sites-in-israeli-cities.php).
  • Fox News published, on 20 September 2026, a 44-page Russian-language 'Plan for Cooperation Between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran for 2024-2026', approved on the Russian side in early September 2024, covering nuclear, energy, aviation, transport and financial-channel cooperation, including raising the national-currency share of bilateral trade (https://www.foxnews.com/world/exclusive-russian-document-reveals-sweeping-iran-plan-spanning-nuclear-finance-aviation; https://english.aawsat.com/world/5320688-russian-document-reveals-how-moscow-sought-deepen-ties-iran-evade-us-sanctions).
  • Iran and Russia linked the Shetab and Mir interbank networks in November 2024 as a workaround to SWIFT/dollar exposure (https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/506151/Iranian-Russian-payment-systems-connected; https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/12/iranian-bank-cards-now-usable-in-russia-a86993).
  • Russia has reportedly provided Iran with satellite imagery and drone components and other military goods before and during the 2026 war (https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-sharing-satellite-imagery-and-drone-technology-with-iran-report/; https://mei.edu/policymemo/russias-wartime-support-for-iran/; https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/08/russia-helps-iran-sharpen-its-sword.php).
  • Iran's Intelligence Ministry announced on 20 September 2026 that it dismantled cells in multiple provinces, killing an operative in Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan, who allegedly intended to assassinate a local security commander (https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/09/iran-260920-irna08.htm; https://presstv.substack.com/p/iran-dismantles-terrorist-cells-in).
  • Gunmen attacked a law-enforcement vehicle on the Iranshahr axis in Sistan and Baluchistan on Monday 21 September 2026, killing one officer (https://en.axar.az/news/world/1131711.html).
  • Yemeni government-aligned forces repelled Houthi attempts to advance west of Taiz on 20–21 September 2026, with fighting focused on protecting the remaining overland route linking Taiz city to al Turbah, Lahij and Aden (https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5320712-yemeni-army-repels-houthi-attempts-advance-west-taiz; https://www.yemenmonitor.com/en/Details/ArtMID/908/ArticleID/182546).
  • Ali al Zaydi has been Iraqi Prime Minister since May 2026, nominated by the Coordination Framework (https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/HTML/IF10404.html; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Iraq).
  • A 'Sovereignty Law' proposal is circulating within Iraq's Shia Coordination Framework, including provisions for local administrations north of the 36th parallel to oversee the withdrawal of Turkish and other foreign forces (https://www.shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Sovereignty-Law-gains-traction-within-Iraq-s-CF).
  • A US–Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026 (17 June), addressing removal of the naval blockade and arrangements for safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281; https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/policy-briefs/us-iran-memorandum-understanding-opens-door-major-regional-transformations).
  • Iranian proposals for managing the Strait of Hormuz involving tolls have been widely rejected by Gulf interlocutors, and Iran–Gulf talks hosted around Oman were postponed in mid-September 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/iran-gulf-countries-strait-of-hormuz; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/29/iran-and-oman-swap-proposals-to-manage-strait-of-hormuz-what-we-know).
  • CENTCOM hosted senior military officials from Israel and several Arab states at a conference in Germany in mid-September 2026, where the US reassured partners it would not withdraw forces and discussed increasing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (https://themedialine.org/headlines/israel-7-arab-states-hold-secret-military-talks-on-iran-houthis-in-germany/; https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/09/16/us-israel-arab-secret-military-talks-middle-east.html).
  • Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan in early September 2026, damaging US aircraft (https://theaviationist.com/2026/09/10/iranian-strike-damages-u-s-aircraft-muwaffaq-salti-ab/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_strikes_on_Jordan).
  • Vessels continued to be struck in the Strait of Hormuz on 21 September 2026, with a maritime security agency reporting two tankers hit by an 'unknown projectile' or debris (https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260921-projectile-hits-tanker-as-it-enters-the-strait-of-hormuz; https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2026/09/21/a-projectile-strikes-a-tanker-as-it-sails-into-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-other-mideast-developments/).
  • Ali Khamenei's funeral procession included ceremonies in Najaf and Karbala on 8 July 2026, providing the occasion for senior Iranian attendance in Iraq referenced in the text (https://www.fdd.org/topic/esmail-qaani/; https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607088250).
Disputed claims 2 claims
  • Disputed by context (not false): the article's framing of a firm 30 September Iraqi militia-disarmament deadline is contradicted by statements from PM Zaydi's own security adviser Qasim al Araji and by subsequent reporting of a slip to June 2027.
  • Minor dating discrepancy (not falsity): the Rezaei interview is described as a '20 September interview', while RFE/RL records Al Jazeera publication on 19 September and the article's own footnote URLs carry a 2026/9/19 path.
? Unverified claims 10 claims
  • Rezaei's specific claim that Iran 'tested' a new anti-ship missile carrying a cluster-munition warhead against the USS George Washington on 5 September, and that it struck 'near' the vessel – this is a single-source claim by an Iranian official; CENTCOM has denied any hit and no independent confirmation of a cluster warhead was found.
  • The assertion that Iran fired cluster-munition warheads at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan specifically on 8 September 2026 – Iranian strikes on the base in early September are corroborated, but cluster-warhead use there is not independently confirmed, and at least one viral video purporting to show Iranian cluster missiles hitting US bases in Jordan was debunked (https://www.misbar.com/en/factcheck/2026/09/05/video-does-not-show-iranian-cluster-missiles-targeting-us-bases-jordan).
  • Rezaei's claim that Iraq and five other states refused to meet Iran and Oman in Oman last week and attended the Germany conference instead – the Germany meeting and the postponement of Iran–Gulf talks are both corroborated, but the causal linkage and the specific composition/refusal framing rest solely on Rezaei's account.
  • The claim that cooperation on the strait among littoral states 'is also required by the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding' – the MOU exists and addresses safe passage, but the specific requirement for multi-littoral management cooperation was not confirmed in accessible primary text.
  • The report that PM Zaydi will impose new visa/official-channel rules on foreign (including Iranian) advisors effective 30 September – sourced to a single senior Iranian-backed militia official speaking to US-funded Arabic media; no independent corroboration located.
  • The characterisation of 30 September as the firm deadline for militia disarmament – a senior adviser to Zaydi publicly denied any fixed disarmament deadline, and subsequent reporting indicates the timeline has been pushed toward June 2027 (https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/19/no-fixed-deadline-for-militia-disarmament-committee-says-iraqi-pm-adviser/; https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/22/rubio-and-al-zaidi-discuss-importance-of-disarming-militias-as-iraq-pushes-deadline-to-june-2027/).
  • The early-September Iraqi federal government memorandum reportedly restricting Iranian security/military officials' travel, and the claim that Ghaani's early-July visit violated an earlier version of it – sourced to Lebanese media and unnamed Iraqi sources; not independently corroborated in this review.
  • The Houthi official's statement to Hezbollah-affiliated media on 19 September about 'coast guard' mobilisation for 'extensive maritime surveillance' – consistent with the broader pattern of Houthi maritime claims but not independently verified.
  • Reported framework–militia agreement stipulating a complete Turkish withdrawal from Iraq by July 2027 and a monitoring committee – single-outlet reporting; not independently confirmed.
  • ISW-CTP's forward-looking assessments (e.g. that tunnels will blunt Saudi airstrikes, that Iran seeks higher oil prices to force US capitulation, that Iran views Russia as an information-warfare model, that the Houthis aim to capture al Turbah) – these are explicitly labelled analytical judgements, not verifiable facts.
Sources & how we checked Search journal, source grades, confidence
Confidence

High (0.86) — Confidence is high because the document's provenance was authenticated directly against the publisher's own site, and because 22 of the 24 high-priority factual assertions were independently corroborated by dated sources published within roughly 72 hours of the article, drawn from multiple non-overlapping media ecosystems (US wires, European, Israeli, Gulf-Arabic, Iranian state-aligned and US government). Confidence is held below 0.95 for five reasons: several load-bearing items rest on anonymous or partisan single sources that cannot be independently falsified; one framing claim (the fixed 30 September Iraqi deadline) is contradicted by the Iraqi premier's own advisers; the specific 8 September cluster-munition allegation could not be confirmed and adjacent viral material was debunked; the footnote URLs in the supplied excerpt were partially stripped, preventing full inspection of the citation chain; and the subject matter is exceptionally volatile, so the accuracy of several statements is time-limited. Where evidence was insufficient, items were marked Unverified rather than False, in line with the stated guardrails.

Search journal

ISW Iran Update September 21 2026 Houthi Bab al Mandeb

Trump postpone strikes Houthi Yemen September 2026

New York Times Trump ordered military prepare strikes Houthis September 17 2026 Mohammed bin Salman

Rashad al Alimi Trump phone call military aid Reuters September 2026

Saudi Arabia US intelligence targeting support Houthi attacks September 2026

AFP IRGC tunnels Mokha Houthi radar Zuqar island

Houthis seize Mokha Taiz coast September 2026

Mohamed al Bukhaiti Houthi will not target any nation except Saudi Arabia Bab al Mandeb

Houthi coast guard maritime surveillance Bab al Mandeb September 19 2026

State Department security alert Middle East September 19 2026 unforeseen escalation

Mohsen Rezaei Supreme National Security Council secretary 2026

Rezaei Al Jazeera interview September 2026 Strait of Hormuz Gulf states cluster munition carrier

USS George Washington Iran missile attack September 2026

Qassem Basir missile Iran 1200 km unveiled May 2025 electro-optical seeker

Muwaffaq Salti Air Base Jordan Iran cluster munition attack September 2026

cluster munitions Iranian missile Jordan US base September 8 2026

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Fox News document Russia Iran 44-page plan sanctions evasion 2024 2026

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Russia supplied Iran MANPADS satellite imagery drone components 2026 war

Iran Intelligence Ministry Piranshahr separatist killed September 20 2026 Bam Kerman arrest

Iranshahr Sistan Baluchistan police officer killed September 21 2026

Zaydi Iraq restrict Iranian advisors visa September 30 deadline militias disarm

Iraq Shia Coordination Framework Sovereignty Law drone unit Turkish withdrawal 36th parallel

Ghaani visit Baghdad July 2026 Khamenei funeral procession Iraq memorandum restrict Iranian officials

Zaydi Office of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Iraq reestablished PMF reform 2026

Iran Oman Strait of Hormuz management proposal tolls Gulf states reject September 2026

Strait of Hormuz talks Germany CENTCOM Israel Arab states meeting September 2026

US-Iran memorandum of understanding June 2026 Strait of Hormuz

Iran attack vessel Strait of Hormuz September 21 2026 tanker

Taiz Jabal Naman Jabal Jirdad al Turbah Houthi advance repelled September 2026

Article metrics

Emotion 10% · Reading grade 17.5 · 3310 words

The article we checked Full text as retrieved
_The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran. Most updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas Monday updates also include events from the preceding weekend, collected after ISW-CTP’s 2:00 PM ET Friday data cutoff. ISW-CTP may publish special updates on Saturdays and Sundays if events warrant, however._ ## Key Takeaways 1. US President Donald Trump reportedly decided to refrain from striking Houthi targets in Yemen “for the time being” on September 20. 2. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is reportedly supporting Houthi efforts to develop infrastructure in the Houthis’ newly captured territory along Yemen’s southwestern coast that the group could use to consolidate its recent territorial gains around the Bab al Mandeb and establish long-term leverage over international shipping. Two Houthi military sources told AFP on September 19 that IRGC personnel visited recently captured Houthi territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and supervised Houthi efforts to construct tunnels along the mountainous terrain surrounding the port city of Mokha in Taiz Governorate. 3. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Major General Mohsen Rezaei used his September 20 interview with Qatari outlet Al Jazeera to further Iran’s ongoing effort to sow divisions between the United States and its Gulf allies. Rezaei also sought to portray Iran as a cooperative regional security partner to Gulf states, likely as part of an Iranian effort to secure recognized control of the Strait of Hormuz among other Persian Gulf littoral states. 4. Rezaei also claimed that Iran tested a new anti-ship missile armed with a cluster munition warhead in a recent Iranian attack targeting the USS George Washington aircraft carrier on September 5. The missile did not impact the warship but struck “near” the vessel, according to Rezaei. 5. Russia planned to deepen Russian economic support for Iran and deepen sanctions evasion collaboration between 2024 and 2026, according to the 44-page plan Fox News obtained and published on September 20. ## Toplines **US President Donald Trump reportedly decided to refrain from striking Houthi targets in Yemen “for the time being” on September 20.**[1] Unspecified US officials told the _New York Times_ that Trump told US military officials on September 17 to prepare for US airstrikes against the Houthis after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) appealed for US involvement in the Saudi-led air campaign.[2] MBS has reportedly made several such entreaties since the Houthis seized territory along Yemen’s southwestern coast on September 9 and 10.[3] The US State Department issued a security alert for the Middle East on September 19, citing the “potential for unforeseen escalation.”[4] Trump later decided to postpone the strikes, according to the US officials.[5] The president of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, Rashad al Alimi, also requested US military aid to fight the Houthis during a phone call with Trump on September 20, according to Reuters.[6] Trump did not pledge support to the Yemeni government during the phone call, according to two sources.[7] The United States recently increased intelligence and targeting support to Saudi Arabia amid ongoing Houthi attacks on the kingdom.[8] **The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is reportedly supporting Houthi efforts to develop infrastructure in the Houthis’ newly captured territory along Yemen’s southwestern coast that the group could use to consolidate its recent territorial gains around the Bab al Mandeb and establish long-term leverage over international shipping.**Two Houthi military sources told AFP on September 19 that IRGC personnel visited recently captured Houthi territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and supervised Houthi efforts to construct tunnels along the mountainous terrain surrounding the port city of Mokha in Taiz Governorate.[9] These tunnel systems would likely support Houthi efforts to consolidate their positions on Yemen’s western coastal plain and defend against future Yemeni government counteroffensives that aim to recapture Mokha. These tunnels would also likely protect Houthi forces against ongoing Saudi airstrikes and thereby further complicate Saudi and Yemeni government efforts to dislodge the Houthis from positions along the coast.[10] Iranian support for the Houthis in this regard is part of an effort to advance Iranian objectives by increasing global oil prices and therefore increasing pressure on the United States to surrender to Iranian demands. The two Houthi military sources also said that the Houthis and IRGC personnel discussed the installation of radar infrastructure near Mokha and on Zuqar Island, which is located north of the Bab al Mandeb Strait.[11] It is unclear which radar systems the Houthis and IRGC discussed installing, but discussions about installing radar systems near Mokha and on Zuqar Island suggest that such radars might contribute to the Houthis’ maritime sensing capabilities and support ongoing Houthi efforts to establish long-term leverage over international shipping. A Houthi official told Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated media on September 19 that the Houthi “coast guard” is mobilizing vessels to conduct “extensive maritime surveillance” within Houthi-“controlled” sections of the strait in response to potential attacks on vessels by pirates or “hostile parties.”[12] Radar systems could also, in theory, support Houthi air defenses that the group may seek to position in the area. The United States previously destroyed multiple Houthi air defense radar systems during strikes across Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory in 2024 and during Operation Rough Rider in 2025.[13] Houthi-IRGC efforts to improve Houthi positioning and capabilities in southwestern Yemen come amid recent Houthi rhetoric that indicates that the group intends to exert control over shipping in the strait. Houthi Defense Minister Mohammad Nasser al Atifi stated on September 20 that the Houthi Navy has “imposed a secure framework” to ensure the “protection and security” of navigation in the Red Sea.[14] Atifi noted that this excludes Saudi vessels, given that the Houthis are currently enforcing a blockade against Saudi ports and vessels.[15] Houthi Political Bureau member Mohamed al Bukhaiti told Western media on September 20 that the Houthis confirmed to the United States that the group will not target any nation in the strait except for Saudi Arabia.[16] Current Houthi promises to refrain from restricting international, non-Saudi maritime traffic through the Bab al Mandeb offer no guarantee that the group will perpetually refrain from attacking vessels belonging to the United States and its allies.Allowing the Houthis to determine which vessels may transit through the strait violates international maritime law and is unacceptable for US national security interests.[17] **Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Major General Mohsen Rezaei used his September 20 interview with Qatari outlet Al Jazeera to further Iran’s ongoing effort to sow divisions between the United States and its Gulf allies.[18]**Rezaei urged Gulf states to reconsider their partnerships with the United States during the interview and repeated the Iranian regime’s longstanding narrative that the US military presence in the region is the primary source of regional insecurity.[19] This line of messaging supports Iran’s broader objective of reducing US military and political influence in the region.[20] Such narratives from Iranian officials ignore Iran’s own destabilizing activities against Gulf states, such as Iran’s support for Houthi attacks on Saudi military and energy infrastructure and continued threats to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandeb Strait.[21] Rezaei also sought to portray Iran as a cooperative regional security partner to Gulf states, likely as part of an Iranian effort to secure recognized control of the Strait of Hormuz among other Persian Gulf littoral states.[22] Rezaei stated that Iran is willing to work with littoral states on an agreement to manage the strait.[23] Iranian leadership recognizes that consolidating Iranian control over the strait in the long term requires other littoral states to recognize Iran’s authority and management in the strait. Such cooperation is also required by the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding.[24] Iran has yet to reach an agreement that meets its own requirements for Iranian management over the strait and also satisfies the other Gulf states. Rezaei noted that Iraq and five other states refused to meet with Iran and Oman in Oman last week. These states met instead with US Central Command, Israel, and other Arab countries in Germany.[25] Several states, including Saudi Arabia and Oman, have protested against certain aspects of the most recent Iranian proposal, which reportedly included mandatory tolls.[26] Iranian information operations aimed at sowing discord between the United States and its Gulf allies take place as Iran faces apparent challenges in enforcing its control over the Strait of Hormuz.[27] Iran still presents a serious threat to commercial vessels in the strait, as demonstrated by an Iranian attack on a vessel on September 21.[28] Gulf states have increasingly relied upon US-supported maritime arrangements and alternative transit routes that reduce Iran’s ability to disrupt or control shipping in recent weeks, however.[29] Rezaei’s attempts to influence Gulf states away from their partnership with the United States likely carry particular importance for the regime under such conditions.[30] **Rezaei also claimed that Iran tested a new anti-ship missile armed with a cluster munition warhead in a recent Iranian attack targeting the USS George Washington aircraft carrier on September 5.[31]** The missile did not impact the warship but struck “near” the vessel, according to Rezaei.[32] Iranian media claimed that Iran fired Qassem Basir ballistic missiles in the attack.[33] The Qassem Basir, which Iran unveiled in May 2025, is a solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with a 1,200-kilometer range and a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV) that allows missiles to maneuver mid-flight to evade air defenses.[34] The Qassem Basir is reportedly equipped with electro-optical seeker technology capable of tracking moving targets, according to the _Telegraph_.[35] Rezaei’s claim that Iran used a cluster munition comes after Iran’s recent firing of cluster munition warheads in an attack on US forces at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan on September 8.[36] Cluster munitions disperse over a wide area and are intended to maximize damage. Iran regularly fired cluster munitions targeting Israeli civilian areas in March and April 2026, likely intended to maximize damage inflicted by Iranian ballistic missiles given their relatively low accuracy when fitted with standard warheads.[37] Iran’s deployments of cluster warheads targeting US forces and bases indicate that Iran seeks to inflict greater damage or casualties to impose further human and political costs on the United States.[38] []( "Iranian and Axis of Resistance Campaign Against the US and Regional Allies Between September 18, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET and September 21, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET")[]( **Russia planned to deepen Russian economic support for Iran and deepen sanctions evasion collaboration between 2024 and 2026, according to the 44-page plan Fox News obtained and published on September 20.[39]**Russia approved the plan in September 2024, according to the document.The plan outlined a broad effort to deepen Russo-Iranian ties through nuclear and energy cooperation, Iranian production of Russian aircraft components, and the construction of new transport corridors.[40] The plan also called for both countries to expand the share of bilateral trade conducted in national currencies, expand correspondent banking, develop cross-border payments using central bank digital currencies, and connect banks through independent financial messaging systems.[41] Iran and Russia first operationalized the _Shetab_–_Mir_ interbank payment system to circumvent the SWIFT payment system and the US dollar in 2024.[42] The plans for Iranian and Russian cooperation between 2024 and 2026 are broadly consistent with the principles of Iran and Russia’s formal strategic partnership.[43] Such a partnership is of particular value to Iran as it engages in an active war with the United States. Russia has reportedly provided Iran with satellite imagery and military equipment, including man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and drone components before and during the US-Israel-Iran war.[44] Iran’s relationship with Russia is also central to Iran’s broader campaign to circumvent sanctions through its regional partnerships and mitigate the effects of growing US economic pressure on Iran. Iran has recently met with other traditional trading partners and facilitators of Iran’s illicit networks as well as multilateral organizations as part of its campaign.[45] The documents also emphasize Russo-Iranian collaboration in the media and communications sphere.[46] Both Russia and Iran use media and information campaigns to shape public perceptions and challenge Western influence, and Russia has significantly expanded its global soft power and media reach in recent years.[47] Iran may view Russia’s experience as a useful model as Iran continues what it describes as a “hybrid war” with the United States, which includes efforts to compete in the informational and cognitive space.[48] ## US and Partner Military Operations _Nothing significant to report._ ## **Iranian Strike Campaign** _Assessed Iranian War Aims:_ * _Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz_ * _Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war_ * _Restore deterrence vis-_ à _-vis the United States and its regional partners_ * _Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states_ _See topline section._ ## US-Iran Negotiations _Nothing significant to report._ ## Iranian Domestic Affairs **Iranian regime security forces conducted several operations targeting anti-regime separatist groups in northwestern Iran.** The Iranian Intelligence Ministry claimed that its forces killed one alleged separatist fighter in Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province, on September 20.[49] The ministry claimed that the fighter had planned to assassinate a local regime security commander.[50] The ministry also claimed that its forces arrested an operative who allegedly gathered and transmitted the coordinates of IRGC and Basij military bases to Israeli intelligence agents.[51] The regime has longstanding concerns about Kurdish separatism and militancy in Iran’s western and northwestern provinces.[52] Iranian leaders have historically accused anti-regime Kurdish militias based in Iraq of operating and inciting social unrest in Iran’s border provinces. **The regime is also facing internal security challenges in southeastern Iran.** The Intelligence Ministry claimed that its forces arrested anti-regime operatives planning to bomb critical infrastructure in Bam, Kerman Province, on September 20.[53] IRGC-affiliated media separately reported on September 21 that anti-regime fighters killed an Iranian Law Enforcement Command officer in Iranshahr, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[54] Sistan and Baluchistan Province is a hotspot for anti-regime activity, including by anti-regime Baloch separatist groups that frequently attack Iranian security forces in southeastern Iran.[55] ISW-CTP has observed a slight uptick in regime security operations in southeastern Iran over the past month. ## Lebanon _Nothing significant to report._ ## Iraq **Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is reportedly attempting to restrict Iranian military advisors’ movement and activities in Iraq.[56]**A senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia official told US-funded, Arabic-language media on September 19 that Zaydi is aiming to introduce new rules that would require any foreign official or advisor, including from Iran, to use official channels to request a visit to Iraq and obtain an entry visa.[57] The rules would reportedly go into effect on September 30, which is the deadline for the Iraqi federal government to disarm the Iraqi militias and when US-led coalition forces will withdraw from Iraq.[58] Iranian advisors operate alongside the militias in Iraq, including those within the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).[59] Zaydi’s reported efforts to reduce Iranian military advisors’ freedom of movement follow an Iraqi federal government memorandum in early September that appeared designed to restrict the movement and activities of senior Iranian security and military officials in Iraq.[60] That memorandum also explicitly restricted Iranian officials with security or military backgrounds from visiting Iraq, according to Lebanese media.[61] The new procedures that Zaydi is reportedly introducing may be an attempt to address the lack of specificity within the previous memorandum. This effort may also be in response to possible problems with Iraqi federal government enforcement or Iranian compliance. Iraqi sources speaking to Lebanese media on September 6 said that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani’s visit to Iraq in early July to attend former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral procession violated an earlier version of the memorandum.[62] **Zaydi’s efforts to restrict the movement of Iranian officials in Iraq come amid his own attempts to consolidate his power as prime minister and the Iraqi government’s continued work to restrict weapons to the state.**Zaydi has reestablished the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, which places several security institutions under his authority, and considered major reform of the PMF, for example.[63] Zaydi reasserting Iraqi sovereignty in the form of restricting the activities of Iranian officials in Iraq would also support his position as prime minister. Iranian officials visiting Iraq in recent months have instructed the Iraqi militias to refrain from surrendering their weapons to the Iraqi government, which directly undermines Zaydi’s effort to disarm the militias.[64] Zaydi’s efforts to curb unchecked Iranian activities in Iraq, while seemingly related to his own efforts to consolidate his power, also support the US objective of lessening Iranian influence in Iraq. **The Shia Coordination Framework committee tasked with negotiating with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reportedly proposed a “Sovereignty Law” to unspecified framework parties that would address several relevant issues.[65]**A framework source told Iraqi media on September 20 that the proposed law would “regulate” the Iraqi federal government’s process for receiving weapons from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias after the militias agree to surrender their weapons.[66] This proposed law would also instruct the PMF to create a “special drone unit” and arrange for local authorities above the “36th parallel,” which likely refers to the Kurdistan Regional Government, to monitor the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the area.[67] The 36th parallel marks the boundary of the no-fly zone the United States established in Iraqi Kurdistan in 1991 after the Gulf War.[68] The source also confirmed that unspecified framework parties discussed this proposed law during recent framework meetings, but it is unclear which framework parties support its passage.[69] The full text of the proposed law is not available at this time, but its clause regarding the withdrawal of Turkish forces is consistent with some aspects of a reported agreement that the framework reportedly negotiated in recent weeks with some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that would enable the militias to keep their weapons.[70] That agreement reportedly stipulated that unspecified actors would schedule the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraq by July 2027 and proposed the creation of a committee to monitor the Turkish withdrawal.[71] ## Arabian Peninsula **Yemeni government-aligned forces have reportedly repelled Houthi attempts to advance eastward into Taiz Governorate near Yemeni government-aligned supply lines that connect Taiz City and Aden City.**The Houthis attempted to advance eastward into western Taiz Governorate along three axes near Jabal Naman, Jabal Rasin, and Jabal Jirdad on September 20 and September 21, according to a US-based Yemen analyst and Saudi media.[72] Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Yemeni National Army, reportedly repelled Houthi forces’ attempts to advance.[73] These attempted Houthi advances follow a September 14 Houthi advance eastward from al Waziyah into al Shamayatan District, Taiz Governorate, west of the current Houthi advance attempts.[74] Further Houthi advances northeastward, particularly those near Jabal Jirdad, could threaten Yemeni government-aligned supply lines in al Turbah, Taiz Governorate, which connect Taiz and Aden cities. A US-based Yemen analyst assessed on September 20 that Houthi attempts to advance along these axes represent a Houthi effort to capture al Turbah.[75] []( "Control of Terrain in Taiz and Lahij Governorates as of September 21, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET")[]( [1] [2] [3] [4] ; ; [5] [6] ; [7] ; [8] ; [9] dot com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/5320216-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA [10] ; [11] dot com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/5320216-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA [12] [13] ; [14] [15] [16] [17] ; [18] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [19] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3 [20] [21] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [22] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [23] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [24] [25] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [26] [27] dot ir/news/1405062315855/; ; [28] [29] [30] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3; [31] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3 [32] dot net/news/2026/9/19/عاجل-أمين-مجلس-الأمن-القومي-الإيراني-3 [33] dot ir/fa/news/1378032/ [34] ] ; dot com/fa/news/1404/02/15/3305763 [35] [36] ; [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] ; dot ir/Detail/2024/11/11/737064/Iran-Russia-trade-ties-dollar-SWIFT-remova [43] [44] [45] ttps://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-16-2026/ ; dot ir/en/news/2026/09/14/3696559/cbi-chief-meets-turkish-tunisian-counterparts-in-istanbul/amp ; dot abudhabi/en/crown-prince-news/crown-prince-of-abu-dhabi-meets-iranian-president-on-sidelines-of-brics-summit-in-new-delhi/ ; ; ; dot com/news/6662719; dot ir/fa/news/862846 ; dot gov.cn/wjbzhd/202609/t20260916_12023687.shtml ; dot com/news/246977/Iran-Tajikistan-to-sign-long-term-agreement-in-energy-field [46] [47] [48] ; dot ir/fa/news/854651/ ; ; [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] dot com/en/41140 [57] dot com/en/41140 [58] dot com/en/41140 [59] dot com/posts/6507 ; dot com/news/6903100/شهادت-۴-پاسدار-از-کاشان-در-حمله-شب-گذشته-آمریکا-و-رژیم-سعودی ; [60] dot com/arabworld/2026/09/06/%D9%85%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B9-%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A7 [61] dot com/arabworld/2026/09/06/%D9%85%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B9-%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A7 [62] dot com/arabworld/2026/09/06/%D9%85%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B9-%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A7 [63] dot com/en/Security/Unified-Iraqi-security-command-returns-after-12-years ; dot uk/politics/خاص-قانون-الحشد-الشعبي-يعاود-الظهور-معدلاً-أمام-البرلمان-العراقي [64] dot com/32845 ; dot com/ar/سیاسة/حصري-قا-ني-يرسم-خطا-حمر-في-بغداد-لا-حصر-لسلاح-الفصا-ل-ولا-صدام-مع-الدولة ; dot com/ar/سیاسة/خاص-قا-ني-في-بغداد-لبحث-سلاح-الفصا-ل-ومسار-تصدير-النفط-عبر-هرمز [65] dot com/ar/سیاسة/السلاح-والطيران-المسي-ر-والقوات-التركية-قانون-السيادة-يتحرك-داخل-البيت-الشيعي [66] dot com/ar/سیاسة/السلاح-والطيران-المسي-ر-والقوات-التركية-قانون-السيادة-يتحرك-داخل-البيت-الشيعي [67] dot com/ar/سیاسة/السلاح-والطيران-المسي-ر-والقوات-التركية-قانون-السيادة-يتحرك-داخل-البيت-الشيعي ; [68] [69] dot com/ar/سیاسة/السلاح-والطيران-المسي-ر-والقوات-التركية-قانون-السيادة-يتحرك-داخل-البيت-الشيعي [70] ; dot com/arab-world/5318393-arsenal-iraqi-armed-factions-‘remaining-until-2028’ [71] dot com/arab-world/5318393-arsenal-iraqi-armed-factions-‘remaining-until-2028’ [72] ; ; dot net/yemen/2026/09/21/بعد-اشتباكات-عنيفة-القوات-اليمنية-توسع-سيطرتها-في-تعز [73] [74] ; [75]

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