Labour's share in the UK Fact Check poll tracker has stalled at 29.2%, exactly where it stood a week ago, ending a climb that took the party from 27.5% on 22 October. Reform UK has edged back into second place on 22.0%, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives on 21.6%.
The tracker, an average of the latest 10 polls with fieldwork ending on 6 November, projects Labour as the largest party on 204 seats, short of a majority. Labour's lead over second place stands at 7.2 points, against 7.3 on the desk's 31 October reading.
The flat figure breaks a run of weekly gains. Labour's average rose from 27.5% on 22 October to 28.1% on 25 October and 29.2% on 31 October. Seven polls published since then have left it unchanged.
Underneath the headline figure, the race for second has swung back by a small margin. Reform UK is up 0.2 points and the Conservatives down 0.3 on the 31 October reading, when the Conservatives led 21.9% to 21.8%. The two parties are separated by less than half a point and by three projected seats, 154 to 151, so second place remains effectively a tie.
Reform had dropped to third in the tracker on 25 October after the Conservatives cut its lead for second place over the preceding week. The latest polls point in different directions, which is why the two parties keep swapping places in the average.
YouGov for The Times and Sky News, with fieldwork on 1 and 2 November, puts the Conservatives on 24%, up two and their highest in YouGov's polling on the tracker, with Labour on 26%, down one, and Reform on 21%, up one. Deltapoll, polling from 30 October to 2 November, also has the Conservatives at their highest in its series on the tracker, on 23%, up two, behind Reform on 25% and Labour on 30%, down two.
Opinium for The Observer, polling from 4 to 6 November, has Reform on 21%, down one and its lowest in Opinium's polling on the tracker. The same poll puts Labour on 28%, down two, the Conservatives on 20% and the Greens on 11%, up three.
More in Common, polling from 31 October to 1 November, has Labour on 29%, up one, the Conservatives on 23%, down one, and Reform on 22%, down one. Freshwater Strategy for City AM, polling from 30 October to 1 November, has Labour on 30% with the Conservatives and Reform level on 22%. Find Out Now, polling on 4 November, has Labour on 28%, the Conservatives on 21% and Reform on 20%.
The tracker shows the Greens on 8.5% and the Liberal Democrats on 8.0%, both down from 9.1% a week ago. Those figures are affected by gaps in the published data: Freshwater Strategy's poll gives no Liberal Democrat or Green share, and the tracker records no share for other parties from Opinium's 28 to 30 October poll.
Labour's support has built since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July, succeeding Keir Starmer. Opinium's poll after Burnham's party conference speech in early October put Labour on 30%, its first 30% in almost two years in that series.
Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Autumn Budget in late October. Opinium's write-up of its 28 to 30 October poll, taken just after the Budget, led on Labour holding an eight-point lead over Reform and reported little movement overall. The same release gave Burnham a net approval rating of plus seven, Kemi Badenoch plus two, Nigel Farage minus 26 and Healey minus eight.
The full tracker and the polls behind it are published at ukfactcheck.com/polls.
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