UK Fact Check's poll tracker puts Reform UK and the Conservatives one seat apart in its latest projection, with Labour the largest party but short of a majority, after three new polls with fieldwork ending on 19 October entered the average.
The tracker, which averages the 10 most recent published polls, has Labour on 27.5%, Reform UK on 22.3% and the Conservatives on 22.0%. Shared out across the 650 Commons seats in proportion to those figures, that gives Labour 183 seats, Reform UK 148 and the Conservatives 147, well below the 326 needed for a majority.
The projection is a proportional allocation of seats, not a constituency-by-constituency forecast under first past the post. The tracker's own method note says: "Seats projected from the aggregate vote share using the largest remainder method. A projection is not a forecast: it assumes a uniform national swing." Under that method, no party reaches a majority unless it holds roughly half the vote.
The one-seat gap for second place rests on a 0.3-point difference in vote share, inside the margin of error of any single poll. The tracker's previous published snapshot, covering polls with fieldwork to 12 October, had Reform UK on 22.9% and 153 seats against the Conservatives on 20.3% and 136, so the Conservatives have closed most of that gap in a week while Labour has moved from 27.8% to 27.5%.
The three polls behind the shift disagree on who is second. YouGov, for The Times and Sky News, has Labour 27%, Conservatives 23%, Reform UK 22%, Liberal Democrats 11% and Greens 10% from an online sample of 2,520 adults in Great Britain polled on 18 and 19 October. More in Common, polling from 16 to 19 October, also puts the Conservatives second, on 23% to Reform UK's 22%, with Labour on 28%. Deltapoll, over the same four days, has Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives by 24% to 22%, with Labour on 30%, according to Mark Pack's polling scorecard.
YouGov said Labour's 27% was up three points on its poll of 11 and 12 October. "The latest YouGov voting intention poll for The Times and Sky News shows a four point lead for Labour, who are on 27% of the vote, up three points since last week, though equivalent to their share the previous week, which was the highest recorded for the party since January 2025," the pollster said.
"Trailing Labour are the Conservatives, on an unchanged 23% of the vote, and Reform UK, whose 22% share is within the margin of error of the 21% they recorded in last week's poll," it added. YouGov said its figures "reiterate the trend seen in recent months of a small recovery for both the Conservatives and Labour, who now hold a combined 50% of vote for the first time since we restarted our voting intention tracker in January 2025, having fallen as low as 32% in March."
Deltapoll's figures give the Conservatives 22%, up three on its previous poll in September, according to Mark Pack's polling scorecard.
One published constituency-level model points to a different Commons. An MRP poll by Electoral Calculus for the communications agency PLMR, published around 16 October, put Labour on 28%, Reform UK on 21% and the Conservatives on 18%, and projected Labour winning 353 seats, a majority of 56, with the Conservatives on 90 and Reform UK on 81. Its fieldwork took place from 25 September to 2 October, spanning Labour's conference, before the three latest polls, and its Conservative share sits below the 22% to 23% those polls now record.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, said: "Our polling shows Labour on course for a majority, a clear sign that Andy Burnham's leadership is resonating with voters."
Further down the tracker average, the Liberal Democrats stand on 9.9%, or 66 seats on the proportional allocation, with the Greens on 9.2% and 61 seats. Restore Britain, which YouGov has on 3% and More in Common on 5%, averages 2.1%.
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