Labour has climbed to 29.2% in the UK Fact Check poll tracker, 7.3 points ahead of the Conservatives, after Deltapoll and Find Out Now each recorded the party's highest share in their polling on the tracker and BMG Research put Labour up three points.
The lead stood at 6.2 points when UK Fact Check last reported the tracker on 25 October. Since then Labour's share has risen from 28.1% to 29.2% while the Conservatives are unchanged on 21.9% and Reform UK sits on 21.8%. The rise is not uniform: YouGov and More in Common both show Labour flat on the week.
Deltapoll, with fieldwork from 23 to 26 October, puts Labour on 32%, up two on its poll ending 19 October and the party's highest share in Deltapoll's polling on the tracker. Reform UK is on 25% and the Conservatives on 21%, giving Labour a seven-point lead. The tracker records a sample of 1,932.
Find Out Now, polling 2,514 people on 28 and 29 October, has Labour on 28%, up two on its poll ending 22 October and its highest in the company's regular voting intention series on the tracker. The figure matches the 28% Labour recorded in Find Out Now's separate fieldwork for Electoral Calculus between 25 September and 2 October. The Conservatives are on 21% and Reform UK on 20%.
BMG Research's poll for The i Paper, also conducted on 28 and 29 October with 1,529 respondents, puts Labour on 31%, Reform UK on 22% and the Conservatives on 21%, a nine-point lead. The tracker lists BMG's previous poll, which ended on 24 September, with Labour on 28%.
YouGov's poll for The Times and Sky News, conducted on 25 and 26 October among 2,271 adults in Great Britain, shows no movement for Labour. "YouGov's latest voting intention poll for The Times and Sky News shows a five point lead for Labour, who are on unchanged 27% of the vote," the company said in its write-up on 27 October.
The same poll put the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20%. YouGov said: "Trailing Labour are the Conservatives, whose 22% share is within the margin of error of the 23% they recorded in last week's poll, and Reform UK, who are on 20% of the vote, the lowest recorded for the party since our voting intention tracker restarted in January 2025."
More in Common, with fieldwork from 23 to 26 October and a sample of 3,286, has Labour unchanged on 28%, the Conservatives up one on 24% and Reform UK up one on 23%. Its four-point lead is the narrowest in the set.
The UK Fact Check tracker averages the latest 10 polls. Against the previous 10, Labour is up two points, the Conservatives up 0.6 and Reform UK down 0.5. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens are level on 9.1% each. UK Fact Check's own seat model, which is not a forecast, projects Labour on 199 seats, the Conservatives on 150 and Reform UK on 149, leaving Labour the largest party but short of a majority.
Other averages land close to the tracker. PollCheck's seven-poll average on 30 October had Labour on 29.7%, the Conservatives on 21.9% and Reform UK on 21.7%, a lead of 7.8 points. Fred Cornell's average on 31 October put the lead at 7.4.
The latest polls extend a pattern seen through October. Ipsos, polling from 15 to 22 October, had Labour on 32% and the Conservatives on 24%. "New polling data, conducted 15-22nd October 2026, shows Labour taking a 8-point lead over their nearest rival," Ipsos said, adding: "This time that is the Conservatives rather than Reform UK." It was the first time the Conservatives had been second with Ipsos since June 2025.
Opinium reported on 21 October that "Labour continues to lead the polls, finishing 8 points ahead of Reform UK." It said: "Andy Burnham remains the only party leader with a positive net approval rating and holds a commanding lead over both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage on who would make the better Prime Minister."
Pollsters remain split on second place. Reform UK is second with Deltapoll, BMG and Opinium, while the Conservatives are second with YouGov, More in Common, Find Out Now and Ipsos. The 0.1-point gap between the two parties in the tracker is negligible, and the one-seat gap in the projection is unchanged since 22 October.
The next general election must be held by 15 August 2029.
Join the Discussion
Have something to say? Join the conversation!
Sign in to share your thoughts and engage with other readers.
Sign In Create AccountNo comments yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this article!