Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK in several national voting-intention polls for the first time in more than a year, three weeks after Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street — though the lead is neither uniform across pollsters nor large enough to be conclusive.
The Economist's poll tracker, updated on Sunday, put Labour on 27%, Reform on 23%, the Conservatives on 20% and the Greens and Liberal Democrats on 11% each in its reading for 7 August. That is the widest Labour lead recorded by any of the main aggregators, and it sits at the optimistic end of the range. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News, conducted on 2 and 3 August, had Reform narrowly ahead on 23% to Labour's 22%, with the Conservatives on 19%, the Greens on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%.
Two subsequent surveys pointed the other way. Opinium, with fieldwork from 5 to 8 August and a sample of 2,050, put Labour on 27% and Reform on 25%. JL Partners, reported by Bloomberg, also had Labour on 27% to Reform's 25% — the party's first lead in that pollster's series since March 2025 and its strongest showing since November 2024. A seven-poll average compiled by PollCheck on Saturday gave Labour 26.0% and Reform 24.1%.
The context is a collapse from which Labour has only partially recovered. At the general election of July 2024 the party won 411 seats on 34% of the vote. By June 2026, with Sir Keir's net approval rating at minus 44, poll-of-polls averages had Reform on 27% and Labour on 19.2%. In May the party shed close to 1,500 councillors and control of dozens of councils, recording its worst results in London since 1968, while Reform gained more than 1,400 seats.
Burnham's personal ratings are the clearest evidence of a shift, with Opinium putting him on a net score of plus 16 — the only major party leader in positive territory.
Opinium's figures gave the prime minister 37% approval against 21% disapproval. Kemi Badenoch was on minus 5, Sir Ed Davey minus 4, the Greens' Zack Polanski minus 23 and Nigel Farage minus 25. Chancellor John Healey, moved from defence when Rachel Reeves left the Treasury, stood at minus 4.
Mr Burnham, who won the Makerfield by-election on 18 June with 54.8% of the vote and became prime minister on 20 July, has spent his first weeks announcing cost-of-living measures. According to a House of Commons Library briefing, the government has scrapped the 5% VAT rate on domestic electricity in Great Britain from 1 October, worth roughly £45 a year on the average bill, and will cap single bus fares in England outside London at £2 from January 2027. The package is estimated at £850m in 2026-27.
Markets have been less enthusiastic. Gilts fell after Mr Burnham said he would use "any flexibility" available within existing fiscal rules, with the 10-year yield rising eight basis points to 5.049%. Analysts expect uncertainty to persist until the autumn Budget, when the prime minister has promised a "10-year plan for Britain".
Opposition parties have concentrated their fire on his mandate. Mr Farage, who resigned his Clacton seat on 7 July amid scrutiny of his personal finances and faces a by-election there on Thursday, said Mr Burnham "has no mandate whatsoever" and demanded an immediate general election. All other major parties are standing aside, leaving his share of the vote and turnout as the only measurable outcomes.
A separate dispute remains unresolved. President Donald Trump said Mr Burnham had told him he would "open up" the North Sea; Education Secretary Lucy Powell told the BBC the 2024 manifesto commitment stands, describing the matter as "a change of emphasis" rather than of policy. Downing Street has not clarified the discrepancy.
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