A heatwave record that has stood for 31 years is expected to fall next week, as forecasters predict temperatures of up to 36C across parts of southern and eastern England.
There have been 33 days so far this year on which temperatures have exceeded 30C somewhere in the UK. The record, set in 1995, is 34 such days — a mark that could be equalled today and is likely to be surpassed by the middle of next week, according to the Met Office.
The forecast points to a steady climb rather than a single spike. Temperatures are expected to reach 27C on Friday and 29C to 30C on Saturday, with the low 30s in southern and south-eastern England on Sunday. A brief dip to between 27C and 29C is expected on Monday, before readings recover to around 30C on Tuesday and 32C to 34C on Wednesday. The peak is forecast for Thursday, when 36C could be recorded in parts of East Anglia and the South East.
"Temperatures will climb through the weekend and, more significantly, through much of next week," said Mike Silverstone, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office.
The heat is being drawn north by an area of high pressure setting up a southerly flow of hot air from continental Europe. The picture is split across the UK: Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to see heavy rain over the weekend, while England and Wales stay largely dry, sunny and increasingly warm.
Heat-health alerts issued jointly by the UK Health Security Agency and the Met Office are in place from 9am on Saturday until 9pm on Tuesday, covering much of England. Amber alerts indicate significant impacts are likely across health and social care, including a rise in deaths — particularly among people over 65 or with existing health conditions — increased demand on health services, and internal temperatures in care settings exceeding clinical thresholds. Officials are expected to review the alert level ahead of Thursday's forecast peak.
The 1995 record is a count of days above 30C, not an absolute temperature. The UK's highest recorded temperature remains 40.3C, set at Coningsby in Lincolnshire on 19 July 2022. This year's highest reading so far is 38C, recorded at Lingwood in Norfolk on 28 June.
Several other milestones have already been passed in 2026. The Met Office has logged a record eight days with temperatures above 34C, surpassing the previous record shared by 1976 and 2020, and 2026 is the first year in the UK record with 35C exceeded in May, June and July. The May record was broken on 25 May with 34.8C, beating the 1922 mark of 32.8C, before 35.1C was recorded at Kew Gardens the following day.
"This year has already seen a number of remarkable temperature milestones," said the Met Office's Dr Amy Doherty. "These records highlight just how notable this year has been for UK temperatures."
The human cost has been substantial. Research by Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated at least 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales across the May and June heatwaves, with roughly 42% of those deaths attributable to the additional heat caused by human-induced climate change.
The prolonged dry weather has also pushed England into drought. On 29 July the Environment Agency moved seven areas, covering 51.4% of the country and including London, into official drought status. National reservoir storage stands at around 72%, about 9.5% below the long-term average, and England received just 7% of its long-term average rainfall in July — provisionally the driest July on record.
Helen Wakeham, who chairs the National Drought Group, has described the position as "a second consecutive summer drought" and "an exceptionally serious situation" with long-lasting consequences for the environment, wildlife and the economy.
The coming week represents the first sustained civil contingencies test of Andy Burnham's premiership. He took office on 20 July.
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