Nigel Farage entered the final week of campaigning in Clacton on Saturday with five days to a by-election that no other major party is contesting, a record field of 34 candidates on the ballot paper and a single constituency poll putting him above 70 per cent, as the Scottish Labour leadership contest ran down towards a nomination deadline that Monica Lennon has yet to show she can meet. This is UKFCP's Saturday 24 hours in politics round-up.
Parliament was in summer recess and Westminster produced no new business of substance across the day. Andy Burnham's government, formed after he was declared Labour leader on 17 July and appointed Prime Minister on 20 July, is barely three weeks old. The two fixed political events before the end of the month — the Clacton poll on Thursday and the close of Scottish Labour nominations the following Monday — both fall inside recess.
Clacton, five days out, with the field to himself
The by-election on Thursday 13 August was triggered by Farage's own resignation. The Reform UK leader, who had held Clacton since the 2024 general election, announced on 7 July that he would vacate the seat in order to force a contest and stand again; his resignation was accepted the following day, and the Commons approved the moving of the writ on 9 July.
Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Restore Britain all declined to put up candidates, leaving the novelty candidate Count Binface as the principal challenger. According to PollCheck, the boycotting parties characterised the contest as "a stunt to distract from a Commons standards case over a £5m payment".
Thirty-two further candidates were nominated. The total of 34, confirmed in the Statement of Persons Nominated on 17 July, breaks the record of 26 set at the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election for the most candidates at any UK parliamentary election.
The only constituency polling remains a Survation survey for Mandate Research, which questioned 502 adults in the seat by telephone between 16 and 24 July. Reported on 2 August, it put Farage on about 73 per cent on a low turnout, with Binface second on about 20 per cent. Survation found that 97 per cent of decided 2024 Reform voters said they would back Farage again, falling to 83 per cent including those yet to decide.
Asked to treat the contest as a straight two-horse race, respondents split 69 per cent to 31 per cent, cutting the lead from 53 points to 38. Farage won Clacton in 2024 with 46.2 per cent.
National sentiment ran the other way. Ipsos, asking British adults which of the two they would prefer to win, found 33 per cent for Binface and 21 per cent for Farage, with 32 per cent preferring neither and 13 per cent saying they did not know — a Britain-wide sample rather than a measure of Clacton voting intention.
Farage's resignation came amid parliamentary scrutiny of his personal finances and allegations concerning undeclared gifts and support. The allegations are unproven and remain under investigation; his response could not be independently confirmed. The process was interrupted by his departure from the Commons and would resume if he is returned on Thursday.
Lennon short of the ballot as Scottish Labour clock runs down
Nominations in the contest to succeed Anas Sarwar opened on 3 August and close at 10.00 on Monday 17 August. Candidates need the backing of at least three Scottish Labour MPs, at least three MSPs and at least three affiliates, two of which must be trade unions, with the affiliate deadline falling a week later on 24 August.
The election was triggered on 22 July by Sarwar's resignation after he accepted a peerage to become a trade minister in Burnham's government. He had led the party since 2021 and through May's Holyrood election, its worst result of the devolution era, in which it won 17 of 129 seats. Jackie Baillie is serving as acting leader.
Three candidates have declared: the shadow finance secretary Michael Marra, the South Scotland MSP Joe Fagan and the Glasgow MSP Monica Lennon. Marra and Fagan have both said they expect to reach the ballot. A count published by Left Foot Forward in the first week of August had Fagan on two MP nominations and three MSPs, and Lennon on one MP and two MSPs.
Lennon has said the race "reeks of misogyny and male entitlement", and has called for a "radical reset rooted in democratic socialism" and a "big tent" party with an end to internal disputes.
Marra has offered a different diagnosis of May's defeat. "Highlighting the incompetence of the SNP is not an argument" for backing Labour, he said, arguing that voters "wanted to know what Scottish Labour would do tomorrow if we won power and that just wasn't clear enough".
Hustings run from 18 August to 8 September, members and affiliated supporters vote between 28 August and 17 September, and the result is announced on 19 September.
The map Westminster is now working from
Burnham secured nominations from 379 of Labour's 403 MPs and was the only candidate to replace Keir Starmer, who was forced out by a backbench rebellion. His first appointments removed several ministers closest to the former prime minister; the BBC's political editor, Chris Mason, described it as a "pretty significant cull of the ministers closest to and most loyal to Keir Starmer". Starmer called the job the "privilege of my life".
The Prime Minister has not appointed a deputy. John Healey was moved from Defence to the Treasury, Ed Miliband to the Foreign Office and Shabana Mahmood retained at the Home Office, while Angela Rayner returned to Housing.
In Wales, Labour lost power for the first time since devolution at the Senedd election on 7 May, finishing on nine seats behind Plaid Cymru on 43 and Reform UK on 34, on a turnout of 51.8 per cent. Eluned Morgan, who lost her own seat, said Welsh Labour had "suffered a catastrophic result" that "ends a century of Labour winning in Wales". Rhun ap Iorwerth was appointed First Minister on 12 May.
Also on Saturday
- Bookmakers were not treating Clacton as competitive. Paddy Power made Reform UK favourites, with Count Binface second in the outright betting and the Reclaim candidate Laurence Fox third — the only other selection priced shorter than 100/1.
- If Farage is re-elected and subsequently suspended from Parliament for more than 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days, a recall petition would follow, and a successful petition would force a further by-election.
- The Welsh Labour leadership has remained vacant since Morgan stood down on 8 May.
- Burnham has said a 10-year plan will follow later in 2026, alongside his first instruction in office, "to end rough sleeping in our country".
Polls in Clacton open at 07.00 on Thursday and close at 22.00, with voters choosing one of 34 candidates under first past the post. The count begins on the close of poll, with a declaration expected in the early hours of Friday.
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