Nigel Farage's approval rating has collapsed to its lowest level since the 2024 general election, according to two new polls, in the clearest sign yet that Reform UK's surge may be faltering as new prime minister Andy Burnham enjoys a commanding start in office.

More in Common put the Reform UK leader on -32, a fall of around 10 points in just a fortnight and his worst reading for at least two years. Exclusive polling for The Independent by Ipsos matched the figure, placing Mr Farage on a net rating of -32, down sharply from -14 a year ago.

The findings land two weeks before the Clacton by-election on 13 August, a contest triggered by Mr Farage's own resignation, and amid a widening scandal over undeclared gifts and donations to both him and his party.

Mr Burnham, who became prime minister on 20 July, has meanwhile soared to +19 in the More in Common survey, higher than the +11 recorded by Sir Keir Starmer shortly after he entered Downing Street in the summer of 2024. Sir Keir later fell to -49 during his premiership before resigning as Labour leader and prime minister in June.

The scale of the shift is significant because it points not simply to rising hostility towards Mr Farage, who has long been a polarising figure, but to an erosion of his core support. "What may worry Farage is less the rise in disapproval, he's always been polarising, and more the decline in raw approval, suggesting some previous fans wavering," said Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common.

Among other party leaders, More in Common placed Tory leader Kemi Badenoch on 0, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on -11, and Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who has also seen his standing fall sharply in recent weeks, on -24.

The Ipsos poll told a similar story on Ms Badenoch, whose net rating improved to -11 from -30 last July. Ipsos put Mr Burnham on a more modest +1, but found that 48 per cent of voters would rather see a Burnham-led Labour win an election, compared with 29 per cent who preferred a Farage-led Reform.

A separate YouGov tracker underlined the trend. It gave Mr Farage a net favourability of -46, the joint-lowest figure it has recorded in the decade the tracker has run, and worse than Boris Johnson's -41 after the partygate affair. Just 22 per cent of voters said they had a favourable opinion of Mr Farage, the lowest since 2020, while 68 per cent viewed him negatively. YouGov found the public divided 38 per cent to 35 per cent on Mr Burnham, making him the most popular new prime minister since Theresa May, who recorded +12 in the tracker's first poll in August 2016.

The decline in personal ratings has been accompanied by a slide in Reform's standing. More in Common recently reported Labour overtaking Reform for the first time in more than a year, with Labour on 28 per cent, up four points, and Reform on 24 per cent, down two. It was the first Labour lead over Reform since March 2025. YouGov had the two parties level on 22 per cent, while Find Out Now, the pollster most favourable to Reform, put both on 23 per cent.

The Ipsos research also pointed to a changing electoral battleground, with immigration slipping to third among the issues voters say will shape their vote. Healthcare and the NHS led on 59 per cent, ahead of inflation and the cost of living on 57 per cent, with immigration on 50 per cent.

The turnaround in Mr Farage's fortunes follows weeks of damaging headlines over his finances. The Guardian revealed in April that he had not declared a £5 million gift from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before he stood for Clacton, in addition to some £25 million given directly to Reform by Mr Harborne. Mr Farage and his party have said the personal sums did not require declaration because they were given before he became an MP.

On 29 July, The Guardian reported that more than $2 million had been transferred from George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster and Reform adviser, to his mother, Fiona Cottrell, shortly before her 2024 donations to the party. Five referrals have now been made to the parliamentary standards commissioner, covering the undeclared Harborne gift, allegations that Mr Farage failed to declare some properties, his lobbying of the Bank of England on cryptocurrency policy, and undeclared financial support linked to Mr Cottrell.

Mr Farage stood down as MP for Clacton on 7 July, with his resignation accepted the following day, to trigger a by-election that he intends to re-contest, pre-empting a standards inquiry that could otherwise have forced a vote in his constituency. He is expected to win comfortably after Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Restore Britain all declined to field candidates. His leading challenger is the novelty candidate Count Binface, one of 34 candidates in total, a record for a UK parliamentary election. In an Ipsos poll, 33 per cent of Britons said they would prefer Count Binface to win, giving him a 12-point lead over Mr Farage on 21 per cent.

Polling experts said the drop in Mr Farage's popularity carried particular risk for his party. Lord Robert Hayward told The Independent: "Nigel Farage is tied to the Reform brand more than any other party leader is to theirs. That means that if his support drops then it shows that Reform are in real trouble and this could be the beginning of a real decline."

But he cautioned that the causes were not straightforward. "It is hard to put your finger specifically on what has caused Farage's rapid decline. It is not just the issues about donations. I think there is something to be said about the way Andy Burnham has dominated the news; it has all been about Burnham."

Professor Sir John Curtice noted that Reform itself had lost around three points since Mr Farage called the by-election, and that Ofcom rules covering the contest had made broadcasters wary of interviewing him without referencing the other 33 candidates. "It means he has been off the TV screens because the by-election makes broadcasters nervous," he said, adding: "There is no doubt though that Andy Burnham and Labour are using the summer recess to control the news agenda like Nigel Farage and Reform used it last year."

Sir John cautioned against writing Mr Farage off, however. "It is too strong to say he isn't an asset. He is still very positive ratings among Reform supporters, albeit down on what it was," he said.

Mr Burnham, the 56-year-old former mayor of Greater Manchester, became the country's 59th prime minister after succeeding Sir Keir, whose premiership unravelled over a series of policy U-turns, local election defeats in May and the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. Since taking office, Mr Burnham has sought to seize the news agenda with a run of consumer-friendly announcements, including a £2 bus fare cap, a 20 per cent cut to pub business rates and the removal of VAT from energy bills. He has also pledged to fix the social care crisis, end rough sleeping and raise defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, though questions remain over how the commitments will be funded.

He has combined the policy blitz with a social media offensive aimed squarely at Mr Farage, posting a series of light-hearted videos including blind pub snack tastings.

Attention will now turn to the outcome and timing of the standards inquiry, with 73 per cent of voters telling Ipsos the investigation should continue even if Mr Farage wins in Clacton, and to whether Reform's decline proves to be a passing setback or the start of a deeper reversal.