Britons would prefer a Labour government led by Keir Starmer to a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage if forced to choose between the two, according to new Ipsos polling, even as more voters say they expect Reform to emerge as the largest force at the next general election.

The survey, conducted between 20 and 24 March and published on Thursday, found 40% would choose a Starmer-led Labour government, compared with 32% for a Farage-led Reform UK administration. That gives Labour an eight-point lead in the head-to-head question, a reversal from February, when Ipsos said the public had been evenly split.

The figures suggest a gap between what voters say they would prefer and what they believe is now most likely, with respondents more inclined to predict a Reform breakthrough than a Labour victory at the next election.

Asked what result they expected, 15% said Reform would win a majority government and 13% said it would be the largest party in a hung parliament, giving Reform a combined total of 28%. By contrast, 10% said they expected a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party and 9% expected a Labour majority, a combined 19%.

The poll points to a generational divide in the forced-choice question. Among those aged under 35, Labour led Reform by 49% to 24%, while among those aged 35 to 54 it led by 39% to 29%. Voters aged 55 and over preferred Reform by 41% to 34%.

The split was also clear among supporters of different parties at the 2024 general election. Ipsos said 76% of 2024 Labour voters would choose a Labour government over Reform, while 54% of 2024 Liberal Democrat voters and 57% of Green voters also preferred Labour in the binary choice. Reform’s 2024 voters remained overwhelmingly loyal, with 92% backing a Reform government led by Farage, while former Conservative voters preferred Reform over Labour by 54% to 18%.

Despite Labour’s lead in the forced-choice question, both Starmer and Farage remained net negative with the public. Farage’s favourability rating stood at minus 29, with 25% viewing him favourably and 54% unfavourably. Starmer’s rating was worse, at minus 42, with 17% favourable and 59% unfavourable.

Among other party leaders, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch had a net favourability rating of minus 22, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey minus 14 and Green leader Zack Polanski minus 14.

Ipsos also tested views of senior Labour figures sometimes mentioned as possible alternatives to Starmer. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was the only politician in that group to record a net positive rating, at plus seven, with 31% favourable and 24% unfavourable. Wes Streeting was on minus 21, while Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner were both on minus 32.

Public views of the parties themselves were also negative overall. Labour had a net favourability rating of minus 35, Reform minus 28 and the Conservatives minus 32. The Greens were on minus 12 and the Liberal Democrats on minus 14.

The wider national mood remained bleak. Ipsos found 67% of Britons believed the country was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 14% who said it was going in the right direction.

Keiran Pedley, director of UK politics at Ipsos, said the findings underlined Labour’s broader political problem.

“These findings reflect a key political challenge for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party,” he said. “There is evidence that the public might prefer a Labour government led by Starmer to a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage in the future. But persuading voters that currently support other parties to back Labour instead will be difficult in a world where support for the Greens is growing and a clear majority of the public think things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction.”

Ipsos interviewed 2,283 adults aged 18 and over across Great Britain online. The data were weighted to reflect the profile of the population. As with all polls, the findings are subject to a margin of error.