Opinium
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 188 of 650 seats on 27.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 25.0% (175 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
27.0%
188 seats
―
Reform UK
25.0%
175 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative
19.0%
133 seats
▲ 1.0
Green
12.0%
84 seats
▲ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
10.0%
70 seats
―
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 27.0% | 188 |
| Conservative | 19.0% | 133 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.0% | 70 |
| Reform UK | 25.0% | 175 |
| Green | 12.0% | 84 |
| SNP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 0 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 0.0% | 0 |