Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority —
169 of 650 seats on 26.0%, ahead of Labour on 20.0% (130 seats).
YouGovFieldwork 20 October 2025
Hung parliament
326 seats needed for a majority
Reform UK
26.0%
169 seats▼ 1.0
Labour
20.0%
130 seats―
Conservative
17.0%
111 seats―
Liberal Democrats
15.0%
97 seats▼ 1.0
Green
15.0%
98 seats▲ 2.0
SNP
4.0%
26 seats▲ 1.0
Other parties
3.0%
19 seats▼ 1.0
2 more
Other
2.0%
13 seats▼ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats―
Vote share
Share of the vote, with movement since YouGov
on 13 Oct 2025.
Reform UK26.0%
169 seats
▼ 1.0
Labour20.0%
130 seats
―
Conservative17.0%
111 seats
―
Liberal Democrats15.0%
97 seats
▼ 1.0
Green15.0%
98 seats
▲ 2.0
SNP4.0%
26 seats
▲ 1.0
Other2.0%
13 seats
▼ 1.0
Plaid Cymru1.0%
6 seats
―
0%10%20%30%40%
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650.
Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a
constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
Party
Vote share
Projected seats
Labour
20.0%
130
Conservative
17.0%
111
Liberal Democrats
15.0%
97
Reform UK
26.0%
169
Green
15.0%
98
SNP
4.0%
26
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6
Sinn Féin
0.0%
0
DUP
0.0%
0
SDLP
0.0%
0
Alliance
0.0%
0
UUP
0.0%
0
Alba
0.0%
0
Independent
0.0%
0
Other
2.0%
13
Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,704 GB adults.
Imported from voting-intention.xlsx (All adults).