Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 195 of 650 seats on 30.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 22.0% (143 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
30.0%
195 seats
▼ 2.0
Reform UK
22.0%
143 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative
20.0%
130 seats
▼ 4.0
Green
10.0%
65 seats
▲ 2.0
Liberal Democrats
9.0%
59 seats
―
Other
5.0%
32 seats
▲ 5.0
Other parties
4.0%
26 seats
▲ 4.0
2 more
SNP
3.0%
20 seats
▲ 3.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats
▲ 1.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 30.0% | 195 |
| Conservative | 20.0% | 130 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.0% | 59 |
| Reform UK | 22.0% | 143 |
| Green | 10.0% | 65 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 20 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 6 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 5.0% | 32 |