Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 189 of 650 seats on 29.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 23.0% (150 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
29.0%
189 seats
▲ 4.0
Reform UK
23.0%
150 seats
―
Conservative
20.0%
130 seats
―
Liberal Democrats
9.0%
58 seats
―
Green
9.0%
58 seats
▼ 2.0
Other
7.0%
46 seats
―
Other parties
3.0%
19 seats
▼ 2.0
2 more
SNP
2.0%
13 seats
▼ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
6 seats
▼ 1.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 29.0% | 189 |
| Conservative | 20.0% | 130 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.0% | 58 |
| Reform UK | 23.0% | 150 |
| Green | 9.0% | 58 |
| SNP | 2.0% | 13 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 6 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 7.0% | 46 |