Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 235 of 650 seats on 30.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 25.0% (196 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
30.0%
235 seats
▲ 3.0
Reform UK
25.0%
196 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative
17.0%
133 seats
―
Green
11.0%
86 seats
▼ 1.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 30.0% | 235 |
| Conservative | 17.0% | 133 |
| Liberal Democrats | 0.0% | 0 |
| Reform UK | 25.0% | 196 |
| Green | 11.0% | 86 |
| SNP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 0 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 0.0% | 0 |