Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 174 of 650 seats on 27.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 25.0% (161 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
27.0%
174 seats
▼ 1.0
Reform UK
25.0%
161 seats
▲ 2.0
Conservative
19.0%
122 seats
▼ 2.0
Green
11.0%
71 seats
▲ 3.0
Liberal Democrats
10.0%
64 seats
―
Other
5.0%
32 seats
▲ 1.0
Other parties
4.0%
26 seats
―
2 more
SNP
3.0%
19 seats
▲ 1.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
7 seats
▼ 1.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 27.0% | 174 |
| Conservative | 19.0% | 122 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.0% | 64 |
| Reform UK | 25.0% | 161 |
| Green | 11.0% | 71 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 19 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 7 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 5.0% | 32 |