Oil storage sites across the Gulf are said to be filling rapidly as crude exports slow to a crawl, with analysts warning that producers may soon be forced to cut output if ships continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

With tanker traffic through the strait reportedly close to stopping — amid fears of attacks by drones or rockets — crude that would normally be exported is instead being diverted into storage. As those tanks approach capacity, producers may have little choice but to shut in production.

Energy consultancy Rystad Energy has warned that even Saudi Arabia, often viewed as the region’s key “shock absorber”, could face forced output reductions within a week if flows do not resume. The wider Gulf oil exporters include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Rystad also cautioned that if disruption persists, oil prices could jump sharply, with “triple-digit” crude prices becoming a realistic scenario. Brent crude — the global benchmark — has been trading near $88 a barrel, according to the analysis cited.

J.P. Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy, Natasha Kaneva, has also warned the effects could spread quickly, estimating that every 1 million barrels per day of lost supply could add around $4 to benchmark oil prices.

Separately, Reuters cited Iraqi oil officials saying Iraq had already reduced production by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, with the cuts potentially rising above 3 million barrels within days if storage fills and exports remain blocked.

UK Fact Check note: these are analyst assessments and official claims reported via media; the exact scale of storage constraints and production decisions may change quickly as shipping conditions evolve.