UK FACT CHECK POLITICS
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STATS From: Budget 2026 live: Latest updates, analysis and fact checks

Unemployment to peak at 5.1% in 2027 then fall to 4.1%, Budget document says

Unemployment will peak at 5.1% in the second quarter of 2027 and then fall to 4.1% by the end of the forecast, according to the Budget document published by the Treasury.

The document says the OBR now expects around 200,000 more people in work than it forecast in March.

It also forecasts GDP per person to grow by 5.9% this parliament, with real business investment 0.5% above the March forecast level by 2030.

The document confirms the OBR's growth path after the cut to 1.0% in 2027. Growth is forecast at 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031. These figures match those reported by investingLive earlier today.

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