The OBR has downgraded its forecast for living standards as well as for growth, the Guardian reports. It expects real disposable income per person to fall in the short term, then rise modestly before the end of the parliament.
The OBR forecasts that inflation will average 3.5% in 2027 and will not get back to 2% until 2028, MoneyWeek reports.
The Guardian confirms that the 2026 growth forecast rises from 1.1% to 1.2% and that 2027 is cut to 1%. Reports differ on the size of that cut. The Guardian gives the previous 2027 forecast as 1.6% in one place and 1.5% in another, and ING describes a cut of 0.5 percentage points.
Our earlier entry put the cut at 0.6 points, from 1.6%. That figure is not settled. The cut to 2027 growth remains the largest change in the forecast on either reading.