The Institute for Government says the Chancellor, John Healey, has put off the Budget's biggest choices. In a comment piece, the IfG's Tom Pope says Healey has "deliberately delayed big decisions" on defence, public services, welfare and tax until next year.
Pope notes that the chance of meeting the current budget surplus rule in 2029/30 is now 56%, down from 59% at the last Budget. The 56% figure matches the probability the OBR gave at its post-Budget press conference today. The 59% comparison has not been independently checked.
The IfG also finds that the spending changes are almost all modest. The largest, the Defence Investment Plan, had already been announced before the Budget.