Gilt dealers expect a smaller rise in this year's gilt sales than Deutsche Bank forecast. A Reuters poll of all 15 gilt-edged market makers, published on 23 October, puts the median expectation for the DMO's 2026/27 gilt issuance plan at £249.6bn after the 28 October Budget. That is up £3.4bn on April's plan and below Deutsche Bank's forecast of £251.8bn.
The dealers expect net issuance of short-dated Treasury bills to double to £10bn from £5bn. Reuters reports that long-dated gilts are expected to fall to about 7% of the total, which it says is the lowest since 1990.
The dealers expect borrowing to be revised up by more next year. Their median forecasts are:
- public sector net borrowing of £129.4bn in 2026/27, against the OBR's March forecast of £115.5bn. Deutsche Bank expects £126bn.
- borrowing of £112bn in 2027/28, against £96.5bn in March. Deutsche Bank expects £115bn.
- a gross financing requirement for 2027/28 of £334bn, up £27bn.
The poll puts headroom against the 2029/30 rule at £15bn, down from £24bn forecast in March. That is in line with the Deutsche Bank and UBS figures and slightly above the £12bn median in last week's Reuters poll of economists.
James Moberly, UK economist at Goldman Sachs, said: "While the Budget looks set to be a relatively low-key affair, it will probably set up a difficult Spending Review next year".
These are market forecasts. The official figures will come from the OBR on Budget day.