UK consumer confidence fell 11 points to minus 24 in October, its biggest one-month drop since April 2020, according to the GfK index reported by Reuters. The figure comes ahead of the Budget, which the Chancellor, John Healey, delivers on Wednesday 28 October.
The index stood at minus 13 in September, its highest since August 2024. October's reading is the lowest since April and below every forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. Reuters says that, leaving aside the pandemic, the last fall of this scale followed the June 2016 Brexit vote.
GfK says no single factor explains the slump. It points to rising inflation, the Middle East conflict and the squeeze on household budgets. Consumers' inflation expectations are at their highest since April, near a 3.5-year peak. Reuters says this is likely to concern the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates next month.
"The speed of this deterioration is alarming"
That was Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, speaking to Reuters.
Reuters says surveys from S&P Global and LSEG/Ipsos this month also showed weaker sentiment, undoing a recovery that began around the time Andy Burnham became prime minister. Healey has pointed to first-half growth that was jointly the fastest in the G7 and says he wants to give households and businesses "breathing space".
GfK surveyed 2,003 adults between 1 and 14 October.