ایتا - علیاکبر رائفیپور
I checked this Eitaa feed from Ali-Akbar Raefipour's channel, dated 11 Aban (about 2 November 2026).
Full analysis The complete summary ⌄
I checked this Eitaa feed from Ali-Akbar Raefipour's channel, dated 11 Aban (about 2 November 2026). The checkable facts mostly hold up. (1) Tucker Carlson did post on X on 1–2 November 2026 that an unnamed 'informed observer' said Netanyahu calls Trump every day pushing for a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain, and that a decision could come by 7 November. That he said it is confirmed; whether it is true is not. Trump reportedly said in an interview on 15 October that he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran, Rubio says no decision has been made, and Carlson has predicted an imminent nuclear strike several times since April. (2) The El Al Flight 1862 / Bijlmer details are broadly accurate: 4 October 1992, a cargo flight from New York to Tel Aviv via Amsterdam, an official death toll of 43, health complaints from residents, DMMP in the cargo confirmed in 1998, and a parliamentary inquiry held from October 1998 to April 1999. However, the post says the cargo was weapons of mass destruction sent to the Israeli army. That is not proven: the documents name the Israel Institute for Biological Research as the recipient, and the shipment was reported as legal. The post also attaches an antisemitic generalisation and a slur. (3) The '40th day of the war' claim is right: on 7–8 April 2026 there was a ceasefire, followed by the Islamabad talks, and Britannica reports that China nudged Iran towards the ceasefire. The Supreme Leader did write 'بنده علیالاصول نظر دیگری داشتم' ('in principle, I had a different view'), but he wrote it in June 2026 about the memorandum of understanding signed by the two presidents. The post presents it as hindsight endorsement of opposing the April decision to negotiate, and senior figures (Jalili, Haddad-Adel) said publicly that it was not opposition to negotiation as such. Overall, accurate fragments are put to work for a political argument for Iran acquiring nuclear deterrence.
What checked out (12)
- Tucker Carlson claimed that an informed source told him Netanyahu calls Trump almost every day pushing for a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) in central Iran. VERIFIED AS A STATEMENT BY CARLSON (X post, 1–2 November 2026; reported by Times of Israel, Express Tribune, InvestingLive). The underlying allegation is not verified (see unverified_claims).
- Carlson said Trump might decide by 7 November whether to use nuclear weapons. VERIFIED AS A STATEMENT BY CARLSON (InvestingLive, TokenPost, IBTimes UK).
- Carlson said this is where Israel claims Iran has restarted enrichment. VERIFIED: Carlson attributed the enrichment claim to Israeli intelligence. Iran denies any nuclear activity at the site (InvestingLive, Express Tribune).
- El Al cargo flight 1862 crashed on 4 October 1992 into the Bijlmermeer flats in Amsterdam, en route from New York to Tel Aviv with a stopover at Schiphol. VERIFIED (Wikipedia; Nile Post; Migflug).
- The crash killed 43 people. VERIFIED AS THE OFFICIAL TOLL (Dutch parliamentary final report, Kamerstuk 26241 nr. 9: 4 people on board plus 39 residents). Some secondary sources give at least 47, and the toll on the ground has long been disputed because of undocumented residents.
- Residents later reported unusual illnesses. VERIFIED that health complaints were reported: chronic complaints prompted the inquiry, and 846 people contacted the AMC call centre. Whether the crash or the cargo caused them is not established.
- It was revealed in 1998 that the aircraft carried about 240 kg of DMMP, a sarin precursor. VERIFIED, approximately: Nile Post says about 240 kg, while Migflug says El Al confirmed 190 litres (roughly 215–220 kg). NRC Handelsblad documents (1998) also showed other precursors.
- Dutch parliamentary inquiry in 1998–1999. VERIFIED: the inquiry ran from October 1998 to April 1999, with the final report on 22 April 1999.
- The inquiry found the government had given incomplete or late information. VERIFIED WITH A CAVEAT: it found officials 'failed to pass on crucial information to those with administrative responsibility' (J. Weekly, 1999). But WSWS (1999) reports the committee found no evidence that the government tried to conceal the cargo from the public. 'Repeatedly … false' overstates what the inquiry found.
- Iran agreed to negotiate on day 40 of the war. VERIFIED: the two-week ceasefire on 7–8 April 2026 was day 40, and the Islamabad talks followed on 11–12 April (CNN, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia).
- Foreign analysts attributed Iran's move to Chinese pressure. VERIFIED IN SUBSTANCE: Britannica reports Iranian officials confirmed Khamenei approved the ceasefire after a last-minute nudge by China.
- The Leader said 'بنده علیالاصول نظر دیگری داشتم'. VERIFIED AS A QUOTATION: written message from Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, published around 30 Khordad 1405 (about 20 June 2026), via ICANA, Jahan-e Sanat and Tebyan. See disputed_false_claims for the context problem.
Disputed claims 3 claims ⌄
- MISLEADING / NOT SUPPORTED (not rated False): 'the cargo was used for weapons of mass destruction and sent from America to the Israeli army'. The 1998 freight documents name the Israel Institute for Biological Research (Nes Ziona) as the consignee, not the army, and Migflug reports the shipment was legal. IIBR is widely suspected of chemical and biological weapons work, but no source here establishes that this cargo went to WMD production or to the army. Nile Post notes the DMMP's presence did not show that sarin was being produced or that it caused the health problems.
- MISLEADING CONTEXT: presenting 'بنده علیالاصول نظر دیگری داشتم' as the Leader later siding with opponents of the April 2026 decision to negotiate. The message concerned the memorandum of understanding signed by the Iranian and US presidents (June 2026). In the same message he said he authorised it on the President's commitments, and Saeed Jalili and Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel publicly said it did not mean opposition to negotiation as such.
- DISPUTED (inquiry findings): the claim that the Dutch government repeatedly gave 'false' information goes beyond the reported findings. The committee criticised failures to pass information on, but reportedly found no deliberate concealment of the cargo.
Unverified claims 7 claims ⌄
- The allegation itself that Netanyahu calls Trump almost every day pressing for a nuclear strike. UNVERIFIED: it rests on a single anonymous source quoted by Carlson. Axios separately reported Netanyahu pushing for a strike after the midterms (as relayed by InvestingLive), but no source confirms a push for nuclear weapons specifically.
- That Trump may decide on nuclear use by 7 November. UNVERIFIED and contested: TokenPost reports Trump said in a 15 October interview that he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran, and InvestingLive reports Rubio saying no decision on new strikes has been made. Times of Israel notes Carlson has predicted imminent strikes repeatedly since April. This is a fast-moving story and could change after 7 November 2026.
- That Iran's enrichment has resumed at Pickaxe Mountain. UNVERIFIED: this is an Israeli intelligence claim, as relayed, and Iran denies it.
- That the 'Vefagh team' forced through negotiations against the will of 'the awakened people'. UNVERIFIED: a political characterisation that cannot be checked.
- That Iran sat down to talk at the 'peak of American weakness'. UNVERIFIED and evaluative: this is opinion, not a checkable fact.
- That Raefipour gave a detailed speech on Qeshm Island about the nuclear question last month. UNVERIFIED: a self-reported event, and no recording or report was found.
- 'How hidden mechanisms broke the family…' (video teaser). UNVERIFIED: rhetorical questions with no factual claims that can be tested.
Sources & how we checked Search journal, source grades, confidence ⌄
Confidence
Medium-High — The verdicts on the El Al facts, the day-40 timing and the authenticity of the quotation rest on several independent sources, including Dutch parliamentary records and official Iranian outlets, so confidence there is high. It is lower for three points: the Carlson allegation (one anonymous source, a story that is still developing, and a 7 November deadline that has not yet passed); the exact wording of the Dutch inquiry's conclusions on how the government provided information (I relied on 1999 press reports rather than the full text); and the question of what the cargo was ultimately for (classified Israeli programmes, so it cannot be settled). The score of 38 reflects largely accurate factual cores held down by misleading context, unsupported escalations, amplification of a single-source claim, and antisemitic, inflammatory framing.
Search journal
Tucker Carlson Netanyahu calls Trump every day nuclear strike Pickaxe Mountain
- https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/2117071025955389828
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/conspiracy-theorist-tucker-carlson-claims-netanyahu-pushing-trump-to-nuke-iran/
- https://investinglive.com/commodities/tucker-carlson-claims-trump-weighing-nuclear-strike-on-iran-s-pickaxe...
- https://tribune.com.pk/story/2638296/trump-could-launch-nuclear-strike-on-iran-within-days-claims-tucker-carlson
Tucker Carlson Trump nuclear decision November 7 Iran
- https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/46277
- https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tucker-carlson-netanyahu-trump-nuclear-strike-iran-claims-1829510
- https://investinglive.com/commodities/tucker-carlson-claims-trump-weighing-nuclear-strike-on-iran-s-pickaxe...
El Al Flight 1862 Bijlmer DMMP 240 kg sarin
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Al_Flight_1862
- https://nilepost.co.ug/today-in-history/375559/today-in-history-the-el-al-crash-that-left-amsterdam-with-un...
- https://migflug.com/afterburner/el-al-flight-1862-bijlmer-disaster-747-engines-amsterdam-1992/
- https://www.greenleft.org.au/1998/343/world/flight-1862-and-israels-chemical-secrets
Bijlmer parliamentary inquiry 1999 El Al cargo government information
- https://jweekly.com/1999/04/30/dutch-report-clears-el-al-of-wrongdoing-in-crash/
- https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/1999/04/hol-a27.html
El Al 1862 DMMP Israel Institute for Biological Research Nes Ziona destination
- https://www.greenleft.org.au/1998/343/world/flight-1862-and-israels-chemical-secrets
- http://www.miftah.org/PrinterF.cfm?DocId=1121
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Institute_for_Biological_Research
Bijlmerramp 43 doden 39 bewoners parlementaire enquête 1999
- https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-26241-9.html
- https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bijlmerramp
- https://wiki.beeldengeluid.nl/index.php/Bijlmerramp
- https://www.parlementairemonitor.nl/9353000/1/j9vvij5epmj1ey0/vi3ahg5m0vx6
Bijlmer disaster health complaints residents study AMC
- https://research.vu.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/42175816/complete%20dissertation.pdf
- https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/15/2/170/567102
US Iran war 2026 ceasefire talks day 40 Islamabad
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-ceasefire
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-40-of-us-israeli-attacks
- https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Talks
Iran negotiations fortieth day of war China pressure
- https://abc.net.au/news/2026-11-03/iran-negotiations-us-intensive-war/107339208
- https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/09/iran-260922-rferl01.htm
پیام رهبر انقلاب تفاهمنامه بنده علی الاصول نظر دیگری داشتم
- https://www.icana.ir/news/419819/
- https://jahanesanat.ir/%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1-%D8%AF%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8...
- https://noandish.com/fa/news/216558/
رائفی پور بنده علی الاصول نظر دیگری داشتم مذاکرات
- https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-62/4278410...
- https://www.tebyan.net/news/12497048/
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