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Iran Update, August 31, 2026

understandingwar.org 02 September 2026 at 08:29 View original article →

The original link is the material being checked. It may contain false or misleading claims — we link for transparency, not endorsement.

84/100
Verdict High Trust Largely Reliable — High-Trust Analytical Product with Attribution Caveats

The submitted text is a verbatim reproduction of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats Project (CTP) 'Iran Update, August 31, 2026', published at https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-31-20266-6a9622f2e0757.

22 checks out 3 disputed ? 6 unverified
Full analysis The complete summary

The submitted text is a verbatim reproduction of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats Project (CTP) 'Iran Update, August 31, 2026', published at https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-31-20266-6a9622f2e0757. Provenance is confirmed: matching headline language, structure and paragraph text were located on the CTP domain and on ISW's official X account within 24 hours of the stated cut-off. Targeted research confirmed the great majority of the update's load-bearing factual claims against independent reporting: the CENTCOM demining announcement by Admiral Brad Cooper (Gulf News, Arab News, Fox News, IranWire); the 30 August US strike on two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island (The Hill, Washington Post, Fox News, Al Jazeera); Iranian retaliation against US bases in Jordan with eight missiles intercepted by the Jordanian Armed Forces (Iran International, Fox News, Al Jazeera); the IRGC's 31 August supertanker-mine claim (UPI, Iran International, IranWire); the Iranian Army's Al Minhad claim and the UAE's interception-and-denial response (JPost, Onmanorama, Reuters via TimesLIVE); UAE suspension of trade with Iran (CNN, Haaretz); 35 percent trade contraction and 66 percent annual inflation (Reuters via Iran International, Al Jazeera, Dawn citing ILNA/Statistical Centre of Iran); the personnel identifications of Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Abdolnaser Hemmati as Central Bank governor, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei as judiciary chief, and Ali al Zaydi as Iraqi prime minister; and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada's conditional-disarmament list (FDD/Long War Journal, 1 September 2026). Three items warrant caution. First, the casualty figure 'at least 28 PMF members' killed in the 28 July US-Saudi strikes is not corroborated: contemporaneous PMF statements reported by Al Jazeera, RFE/RL and The Defense Post gave a preliminary toll of 20 killed and 32 wounded, and ISW's own cited Arabic footnote reads '20 martyrs, 32 wounded'; the higher figure may reflect a later toll but is presently uncorroborated. Second, the characterisation that the regime 'effectively closed' the strait 'in March 2026' compresses a contested timeline — the crisis is dated from 28 February 2026 and US strikes from 19 March 2026, while Iran's formal closure declaration is reported for 11 June 2026 and its jurisdictional declaration for May 2026. Third, the UAE trade-suspension date is given as 18 August whereas independent reporting dates the announcement to 19 August. Additionally, independent maritime reporting on 1 September attributed damage to two supertankers on the evening of 31 August to 'unknown projectiles' rather than mines, a material alternative explanation the update does not carry. The copy as supplied has had all hyperlinks stripped (footnotes render as bare bracketed numerals and obfuscated 'dot ir/dot com' strings), which materially reduces reader-side verifiability relative to the original publication. Presentation is analytically disciplined, low in emotive loading, and consistently hedged with epistemic markers, but the product carries a structural institutional lean: it is an advocacy-adjacent think-tank assessment written from a US/allied threat-analysis standpoint, uses contested framing devices ('the regime', 'suboptimal', 'anti-concession officials'), and relies in places on single anonymous sources and Iranian state media whose claims it simultaneously discounts.

What checked out (22)
  • Provenance: the text is the ISW-CTP 'Iran Update, August 31, 2026', published at https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-31-20266-6a9622f2e0757 — headline, key takeaways and body paragraphs match.
  • CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper announced that US forces cleared Iranian sea mines from the internationally recognised shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, announced 27–28 August 2026 (Gulf News 28 Aug; Arab News; Fox News; IranWire).
  • US forces struck two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island on 30 August 2026, the first US strike inside Iran in over a month, after observing preparations to lay sea mines (The Hill; Washington Post 30 Aug; Fox News; Al Jazeera 30 Aug).
  • The IRGC Navy claimed on 31 August 2026 that a supertanker struck two naval mines and caught fire on a route Iran deems unauthorised south of the strait (UPI 31 Aug; Iran International 31 Aug; IranWire 31 Aug).
  • Iran launched a combined ballistic missile and drone attack on two US-hosting air bases in Jordan on 30 August 2026, named by the IRGC as King Hussein and Al Azraq (i.e. Muwaffaq Salti) (Al Jazeera 30 Aug; Qatar Tribune).
  • The Jordanian Armed Forces stated they intercepted eight missiles that entered Jordanian airspace on 30 August 2026 (Iran International 30 Aug; Fox News live coverage citing Reuters/state TV).
  • Iran's army claimed a drone attack on Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE on 31 August 2026 targeting US forces; the UAE said it intercepted a drone over its territorial waters and denied the base was struck (TimesLIVE/Reuters 31 Aug; Jerusalem Post; Onmanorama 31 Aug).
  • The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchange and financial transactions with Iran until further notice following ballistic missile fire at its territory (CNN live blog 19 Aug 2026; Haaretz 19 Aug 2026; globalsanctions.com 20 Aug 2026).
  • Iranian foreign trade has contracted by approximately 35 percent under sanctions and the US naval blockade, per Iranian officials including President Pezeshkian (Reuters via Iran International 29 Aug 2026; Al Jazeera 29 Aug 2026; CNBC 29 Aug 2026).
  • Iran's annual inflation rate stood at 66 percent per the Statistical Centre of Iran as reported by ILNA (Dawn, 18 Aug 2026; IranWire feature, late Aug 2026).
  • Abdolnaser Hemmati is Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, appointed 31 December 2025, and has faced public criticism over foreign-exchange instability (Wikipedia; bne IntelliNews 31 Dec 2025; Iran International 29 Dec 2025; IranWire 24 Aug 2026).
  • Ahmad Vahidi is Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, having succeeded Mohammad Pakpour on 28 February 2026 (Wikipedia entries for Vahidi and Pakpour; United Against Nuclear Iran resource dated April 2026).
  • Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei is Iran's judiciary chief and has repeatedly issued hardline warnings about unrest, including on 5 January 2026 and 17 August 2026 (Iran International 5 Jan 2026; IranWire 17 Aug 2026).
  • Ali al Zaydi has been Prime Minister of Iraq since 14 May 2026, succeeding Mohammed Shia al Sudani (Al Jazeera 14 May 2026; Wikipedia; The Arab Weekly).
  • Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada has set conditions for placing its weapons under Iraqi state control, reported 1 September 2026 (FDD analysis and FDD's Long War Journal, both 1 Sep 2026).
  • Joint US-Saudi airstrikes struck PMF sites across Iraq on 28 July 2026, prompting an Iraqi government protest over sovereignty and the cancellation of PM Zaydi's Saudi trip (CNN 28 Jul 2026; Al Jazeera 29 Jul 2026; FDD 29 Jul 2026).
  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf visited Baghdad from 18–19 August 2026 for talks including Hormuz shipping and regional security (Iran International 19 Aug 2026; IranWire 18 Aug 2026; The National 19 Aug 2026; Asharq Al-Awsat 20 Aug 2026).
  • Iran has pressed Baghdad to expel or remove Iranian Kurdish opposition groups from Iraqi territory, with reporting on this demand during 2026 (Rudaw 8 Apr 2026; The New Region 29 Jun 2026; Kurdistan Watch summary of reporting c. late May 2026).
  • A nationwide gasoline price increase in November 2019 triggered protests in more than 100 Iranian cities with hundreds of documented deaths (Iran International, 16 Aug 2026 background).
  • Iran faces an acute gasoline shortage attributed to the US blockade constraining imports, with authorities cutting subsidised quotas and weighing price increases and rationing (MEES 14 Aug 2026; Iran International 16 Aug 2026; mezha.net 26 Aug 2026).
  • Nationwide protests erupted in Iran on 28 December 2025 and continued into 2026 amid economic collapse, met with lethal state repression and internet shutdowns (Amnesty International 8 Jan and Jan 2026; Wikipedia '2025–2026 Iran massacres').
  • ISW-CTP published an assessment on 21 August 2026 concerning Vahidi's faction, hardliner ascendancy and resistance to concessions (https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-21-2026).
Disputed claims 3 claims
  • DISPUTED (figure): 'US-Saudi strikes on July 28 killed at least 28 PMF members.' Contemporaneous PMF statements reported by Al Jazeera (29 Jul 2026), RFE/RL via GlobalSecurity (29 Jul 2026) and The Defense Post (29 Jul 2026) gave a preliminary toll of at least 20 killed and 32 wounded, and the update's own Arabic footnote text reads '20 martyrs, 32 wounded'. The higher figure may reflect subsequent deaths of the wounded but is currently uncorroborated and internally inconsistent with the cited source. Not marked False: casualty tolls legitimately rise post-event.
  • DISPUTED (timeline/date precision): (a) 'the regime effectively closed the strait in March 2026' — the Hormuz crisis is dated from 28 February 2026 and Iranian action from 4 March 2026 (CRS report, 11 Mar 2026; Wikipedia '2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis'), but Iran's explicit closure announcement is reported for 11 June 2026 (Al Jazeera) and its jurisdictional declaration for May 2026 (East Asia Forum). The phrasing is defensible but compresses a contested chronology. (b) 'The UAE announced on August 18' — CNN, Haaretz and globalsanctions.com all date the announcement to 19 August 2026; a one-day variance, possibly a US-ET conversion artefact.
  • CONTEXTUAL DISPUTE (omission): GlobalSecurity's Iran War day-log for 1 September 2026 records two supertankers — the Bahri-operated Sidr and the South Korean-operated Senegal Prosperity — struck by 'unknown projectiles' minutes apart on the evening of 31 August inside the US-guarded southern corridor, and Insurance Journal/Manila Times reporting of 1 September describes projectile strikes. This competing causal account of late-31-August tanker damage is not reflected in the update, which frames Iranian activity around mining.
? Unverified claims 6 claims
  • The specific 31 August statements attributed to Judiciary Chief Ejei — that the judiciary, LEC, intelligence and security forces are at their 'highest level of readiness' and will act 'more decisively than ever' — could not be located in independent non-ISW reporting; only his 17 August and 5 January statements were corroborated.
  • The claim that CENTCOM's July 2026 airstrikes destroyed 'more than 60 IRGC fast attack craft' near and in the Strait of Hormuz: July 2026 strike waves are well documented (Army Recognition, CNN), but the specific FAC destruction figure was not independently corroborated.
  • The claim that CENTCOM explicitly denied that any ship has struck Iranian mines in the strait: the IRGC claim and US demining declaration are documented, but a direct CENTCOM rebuttal statement was not located in the sources opened.
  • The 24 August 2026 seizure by ROYG-affiliated National Resistance Forces of a drame-component shipment travelling from Djibouti to Hudaydah, including Chinese-made 12km-range wireless modems: an Arab News report of 1 September 2026 confirms Yemeni government-aligned forces seizing drone components, but the 24 August date, Djibouti routing and component specifics were not corroborated.
  • The 29 August claim by Kataib Hezbollah security chief Abu Mujahed al Asaf that PMC Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh forewarned the group of the 28 July strikes, and the associated 31 August denial by Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada spokesperson Kazim al Fartousi: an analogous Asaib Ahl al Haq accusation is documented in ISW's 4 August update, but the 29–31 August exchange was not independently corroborated.
  • Reporting attributed to an 'informed source' on 30 August that Iraq will imminently refer two PMF draft laws to parliament after deleting the staff-college and Muhandis Company paragraphs, and the competing 25 August account of amendments limiting PMF operational powers: the 2025 precedents (Sudani's withdrawal of the PMF bills under US pressure) are well documented, but the August 2026 single-source Iraqi/Qatari-owned reporting could not be independently confirmed.
Sources & how we checked Search journal, source grades, confidence
Confidence

High (0.86) on provenance, event-level factual accuracy and bias characterisation; Moderate (0.62) on the disputed casualty and chronology details and on the six unverified single-source claims. — Confidence is high because provenance was positively established against the publisher's own domain, and because the update's principal event claims were independently corroborated by multiple dated, mutually independent outlets across different national and editorial traditions — wire-derived (Reuters via Iran International and TimesLIVE), US mainstream (Washington Post, CNN, The Hill, Fox News, UPI, CNBC), Gulf and pan-Arab (Gulf News, Arab News, Al Jazeera, Asharq Al-Awsat), South Asian (Dawn, Onmanorama), Israeli (Jerusalem Post, Haaretz) and specialist (MEES, Seatrade Maritime, CRS, UANI). Personnel identifications for five fast-changing offices were each checked against 2026-dated sources rather than model priors, as required. Confidence is reduced to moderate on specific numeric and chronological details for four reasons: the submitted copy's footnotes were stripped, preventing direct inspection of the publisher's evidence base; a material share of the underlying sources are Persian- and Arabic-language and were reachable only indirectly; several claims are structurally unfalsifiable because they rest on unnamed sources in partisan Iraqi and Gulf-owned outlets; and the environment is fast-moving, so casualty tolls and legislative status may already have shifted. Consistent with the stated guardrails, no claim has been marked False — the two items with dated counter-evidence are recorded as Disputed with that evidence set out, and all uncorroborated items are recorded as Unverified with the specific evidentiary limit named. The trust score of 84 reflects a well-sourced, epistemically disciplined and largely accurate specialist product that is nonetheless standpoint-committed, single-sourced in places, carries one uncorroborated casualty figure and one compressed chronology, and omits a competing causal account of a central 31 August incident.

Search journal

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Iran inflation 66 percent foreign trade fell 35 percent August 2026

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Iran closed Strait of Hormuz March 2026 declaration territorial waters fees

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Axios Iran radar maritime surveillance degraded August 19 2026

Jordan intercepted missiles King Hussein Air Base August 30 2026

Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada conditions disarmament August 2026

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PMF death toll US Saudi strikes 28 killed Iraq

Kataib Hezbollah Jurf al Sakhr Khamis al Khanjar August 2026

Faleh al Fayyadh accused warning Kataib Hezbollah before strikes 2026

Iraq PMF draft law parliament August 2026 Muhandis Company US objections

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Iran protests December 2025 January 2026 rial collapse crackdown killed

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criticalthreats Iran Update August 21 2026 Vahidi concessions

Yemen National Resistance Forces seized drone components Houthis Djibouti August 2026

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Emotion 10% · Reading grade 17.1 · 3558 words

The article we checked Full text as retrieved
_The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing updates Monday through Friday to provide analysis on the war with Iran. Most updates cover events from the past 24-hour period, whereas Monday updates also include events from the preceding weekend, collected after ISW-CTP’s 2:00 PM ET Friday data cutoff. ISW-CTP may publish special updates on Saturdays and Sundays if events warrant, however._ ## Key Takeaways 1. The Iranian regime is attempting to re-assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz by deploying mines and re-cultivating international perceptions of the threat to vessels in the strait after US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it had cleared mines in the strait. CENTCOM announced that US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing the IRGC prepare to launch mines into the strait. 2. Iranian forces’ suboptimal methods to intimidate ships in the strait — including missile launchers instead of fast attack craft (FAC) to lay mines and FAC for detecting vessels — suggest that Iranian forces are adapting under military constraints that are limiting Iran’s ongoing ability to threaten vessels. 3. The Iranian regime is demonstrating increasing concern that worsening economic conditions could trigger renewed anti-regime protests and is expanding preventive measures to deter and suppress possible unrest. 4. Iran’s deteriorating economy is generating potential triggers for renewed unrest, but the regime has limited ability to address these problems, especially under the US economic campaign to isolate Iran. 5. Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are conditioning their disarmament on several conditions that the militias likely recognize the Iraqi federal government will not be able to implement, which underscores the militias’ intentions to resist disarmament. 6. Iran likely pressured these militias to condition their disarmament on the Iraqi federal government expelling Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to further incentivize the Iraqi government to crack down on these groups. The Iranian regime perceives Iraqi Kurdistan as a base for Israel and Kurdish opposition groups to cooperate and launch attacks against Iran. ## Toplines **The Iranian regime is attempting to re-assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz by deploying mines and re-cultivating international perceptions about the threat to vessels in the strait after US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it had cleared mines in the strait.**CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper announced on August 27 that US forces successfully removed the mines that Iran previously laid in the Strait of Hormuz’s internationally recognized traffic separation scheme.[1] Cooper’s announcement undermines the regime’s ability to use the threat of mines as an element of Iran’s strategy to disrupt traffic through the strait since the regime effectively “closed” the strait in March 2026.[2] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has pointed to the threat of mines that it placed along the internationally recognized traffic separation scheme as a means to force vessels into Iranian territorial waters and therefore make them liable to Iranian regulations and service fees. The elimination of one of Iran‘s mechanisms for sustaining the perception that the strait is “closed” directly challenges Iran‘s assertion that it controls the strait and risks hindering Iran’s ability to secure sovereignty over the strait, which is one of Iran’s war aims.[3] Iran has responded to US CENTCOM’s announcement by taking actions that are intended to intimidate global shipping firms and reinforce Iranian “control.” Regime media has attempted to intimidate global shipping firms by repeatedly denying CENTCOM’s assertions that US forces have demined the strait.[4] The IRGC Navy claimed on August 31 that two sea mines stopped a supertanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz through what the IRGC deemed the “illegal route.”[5] CENTCOM denied that any ships have struck Iranian mines in the strait.[6] Iran also attempted to re-deploy mines in the strait on August 30. CENTCOM announced that US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing the IRGC prepare to launch mines into the strait.[7] These strikes are the first US strikes in Iran since July 29.[8] This instance is also the first observed Iranian attempt in this war to deploy mines through a shore-based delivery method. The IRGC Navy exhibited a launcher that fired mobile mines from Fajr 5 rockets from the Iranian coast into the sea during a naval exercise in January 2025.[9] Fajr 5 rockets have a range of approximately 75 kilometers.[10] []( "US Strikes on Iran between August 30, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET and August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET")[]( **Iranian forces’ suboptimal methods to intimidate ships in the strait suggest that Iranian forces are adapting under military constraints that are limiting Iran’s ability to threaten vessels.**Iran’s use of missile launchers instead of fast attack craft (FAC) to lay mines in the strait on August 30 suggests that military constraints are forcing Iran to adopt less optimal means to lay mines. Iran has historically deployed FAC to mine the strait, which is a more precise method than firing mine-loaded projectiles.[11] The use of a shore-based delivery system may suggest that Iranian forces assess that deploying FAC for mine-laying operations exposes those vessels to unacceptable risk, especially after CENTCOM’s July 2026 airstrikes that destroyed more than 60 IRGC FAC near and in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also targeted other Iranian capabilities that supported Iran‘s disruptive activities in the strait, including coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, drone launch sites, and command-and-control networks.[12] Iran is also reportedly using FAC to surveil ships in the strait rather than through coastal radar systems. The head of a risk advisory firm stated on August 30 that the IRGC is using FAC to identify ships transiting the strait by physically approaching and reading the names of ships.[13] Such an approach suggests that the IRGC Navy may be unable to rely upon traditional coastal radar systems due to the degradation of these systems. Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 19 that CENTCOM’s campaign to degrade Iran‘s radar and maritime surveillance systems has diminished visibility of the traffic in the southern transit route and that Iran‘s ability to monitor traffic has been limited to “a few radars“ and some FAC.[14] These reports also suggest that Iran may have developed a rudimentary and suboptimal find, fix, and finish alternative targeting cycle using its radar and missile assets during the respite from US airstrikes since July 2026. Such a targeting cycle requires forces to detect and identify a specific threat (find), track and pinpoint its exact location in time and space to prevent escape (fix), and deploy military options to capture, neutralize, or destroy the target (finish).[15] **The Iranian regime attacked US bases in the region and claimed attacks on other bases in order to deter the United States and its allies from undermining Iranian control of the strait and isolating Iran economically.**Iran responded to CENTCOM’s strikes on Larak Island by launching ballistic missiles and drones at the King Hussein and Muwaffaq Salti air bases in Jordan on August 30.[16] The Jordanian army intercepted eight missiles. US officials stated that nearly all incoming munitions were intercepted and that there were no significant impacts on the bases.[17] Regime media reported on August 31 that Iranian forces launched dozens of drones on US troops at Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and claimed multiple direct hits.[18] The UAE intercepted a drone over Emirati territorial waters but denied that any Iranian missiles struck the UAE.[19] The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran.[20] Iran’s attacks on the US bases are the latest iteration of Iran’s established response calculus in which it responds to any US efforts to restore maritime navigation by targeting US bases.[21] Regime-affiliated media outlet Nour News argued on August 31 that Iran’s recent strikes against Jordan demonstrate the limits of US reliance on geographic distance for force protection, which is part of the regime’s broader efforts to isolate the United States from its partners in the region.[22] The same outlet separately argued on August 31 that Iran was not trying to defeat the United States militarily but rather raise the costs of the conflict enough to cause US officials to concede.[23] This argument is consistent with Iran’s attempts to deter the United States from undermining Iran’s efforts in the strait by claiming multiple successful attacks on US bases.[24] []( "Iranian Attacks on Regional US Allies between August 30, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET and August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET")[]( **The Iranian regime is demonstrating increasing concern that worsening economic conditions could trigger renewed anti-regime protests and is expanding preventive measures to deter and suppress possible unrest.** Regime officials have warned that economic grievances could fuel unrest, expanded internal security preparations, and increased pressure on suspected protest networks in recent weeks.[25] Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei warned on August 31 that the Iranian judiciary, Law Enforcement Command (LEC), intelligence services, and security forces are at their “highest level of readiness” and that the judiciary will act “more decisively than ever” against individuals who attempt to instigate unrest or undermine security.[26] Ejei also claimed that officials broadly agree on the need to strengthen security and decisively confront “anti-security elements” from within Iran.[27] Ejei’s remarks are an indicator that the regime increasingly views renewed protests as a plausible internal security threat and is trying to deter citizens frustrated with Iran’s weak economy from mobilizing into broader anti-regime movements. Ejei similarly instructed prosecutors amid electricity and gas shortages in December 2024 ahead of economically motivated protests to coordinate directly with intelligence, security, and LEC agencies to take measures to strengthen public security and act with “greater firmness” against efforts to create insecurity.[28] Iran’s deteriorating economy is generating potential triggers for renewed unrest, but the regime has limited ability to address these problems, especially under the US economic campaign to isolate Iran.[29] Iranian foreign trade has fallen by 35 percent and annual inflation has risen to 66 percent as of August 26, according to Iranian government officials and Western media.[30] Iranian parliamentarians criticized Central Bank Governor Abdol Nasser Hemmati on August 31 over the instability of Iran’s exchange rate.[31] Iran also faces an acute gasoline shortage as a result of the US blockade on Iranian ports that has prevented Iran from importing refined oil and exporting non-refined oil. Some regime elements are calling for the regime to increase gas prices.[32] Iranian officials are likely reticent to significantly raise the cost of fuel because a gasoline price increase triggered nationwide protests in 2019.[33] The Winter 2025-2026 protests similarly began amid the Iranian rial’s collapse and worsening economic conditions.[34] The regime’s concerns about potential unrest do not necessarily mean that senior decisionmakers will change course in order to relieve economic pressure, however. ISW-CTP assessed on August 21 that IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other anti-concession officials may tolerate greater domestic instability because they may calculate that the regime can suppress renewed protests as it has previously done in the December 2025 to January 2026 protests.[35] **Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are conditioning their disarmament on several conditions that the militias likely recognize the Iraqi federal government will not be able to implement, which underscores the militias’ intentions to resist disarmament.**Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada published 10 conditions for its disarmament on August 29 that include the full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, the “liberation” of Iraqi political and economic decision-making from US “hegemony,” the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Iraq, and the expulsion of anti-Iranian regime Kurdish groups from Iraqi Kurdistan.[36] Iranian-backed Badr Organization head Hadi al Ameri reiterated these demands at a memorial ceremony for Shia cleric Mohammad Baqir al Hakim on August 30.[37] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a loose coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that includes Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, released a similar list of preconditions on August 17.[38] It is unclear if the Badr Organization is also conditioning its disarmament on the Iraqi federal government meeting these demands or if Ameri is merely echoing Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada’s demands. Ameri has played a key role in supporting the Iraqi government’s disarmament efforts in recent months.[39][40] **Iran likely pressured these militias to condition their disarmament on the Iraqi federal government expelling Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to further incentivize the Iraqi government to crack down on these groups.**The Iranian regime perceives anti-regime Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan to be a direct security threat. Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have previously echoed Iran’s view of the Iraqi Kurdistan region as a base for Israel and Kurdish opposition groups to cooperate and launch attacks against Iran but have not previously demanded the expulsion of these groups until August 29.[41] The inclusion of this demand comes just over a week after several senior Iranian officials, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, met with Iraqi officials in Baghdad on August 19 and 20. Iranian officials likely discussed Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq with their Iraqi counterparts during the meetings, particularly given that the Iranian government has urged the Iraqi federal government to take stronger action against anti-regime Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan in recent months.[42] An unnamed Kurdish politician and an Iraqi official told UK-based, Qatari-owned media on May 26 that senior Iranian officials, including IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, demanded that the Iraqi federal government remove all Iranian Kurdish opposition groups from Iraqi territory.[43] Iran may calculate that the Iraqi government is more willing to crack down and disarm anti-regime Iranian Kurdish groups as part of a disarmament deal with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. ## US and Partner Military Operations _See topline section_. ## **Iranian Strike Campaign** _Assessed Iranian War Aims:_ * _Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz_ * _Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war_ * _Restore deterrence vis-_ à _-vis the United States and its regional partners_ * _Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states_ _See topline section_. ## US-Iran Negotiations _Nothing significant to report._ ## Iranian Domestic Affairs _See topline section._ ## Lebanon _Nothing significant to report._ ## Iraq **An informed source told Iraqi media on August 30 that the Iraqi government will soon refer separate draft laws concerning the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to Parliament for approval after adjusting one of the laws to address US concerns about Iranian influence in the PMF.[44]**The informed source told Iraqi media the United States did not object to any clauses in the PMF Retirement and Service draft law but opposed parts of the PMF structure draft law, in reference to the Popular Mobilization Authority draft law.[45] It is unclear what is included in the current draft law, but a previous iteration of the Popular Mobilization Authority draft law would have strengthened Iran’s influence within the Iraqi security establishment by formalizing key PMF structures. The federal government reportedly responded to the US concerns by removing two paragraphs in the draft law related to the creation of a staff college for PMF members and the establishment of the Muhandis Company, which is a US-sanctioned PMF-controlled commercial entity.[46] Former Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani withdrew a previous iteration of the draft law from parliament in August 2025, due to reported US pressure.[47] Sudani also withdrew the PMF Services and Retirement draft law from Parliament in March 2025 amid back-and-forth by Iranian-backed Iraqi actors attempting to use provisions of the draft law to fire Popular Mobilization Commission Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh, Sudani’s then political ally.[48] That PMF Services and Retirement draft law would have forced several PMF leaders, including Fayyadh, to retire by setting the retirement age at 60.[49] The source speaking to Iraqi media on August 30 added that the two draft laws represent the near-final versions to be presented to parliament, but the federal government could amend the laws at any time until this occurs.[50] Iranian-backed actors have repeatedly stated their interest in passing laws that strengthen the PMF and thus Iranian influence in Iraqi security decision making. Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada included the passage of the unspecified PMF law in its conditions in exchange for disarmament on August 29.[51] **Iraqi media reporting about the referral of these PMF laws contradicts more recent reporting detailing Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi’s efforts to conduct major structural reform of the PMF, however.[52]**A senior Iraqi government source told UK-based, Qatari-owned media on August 25 that unidentified actors—likely referring to Zaydi government officials — made several amendments to a PMF-affiliated ”draft law” that aim to limit the PMF’s operational powers.[53] The source is likely referring to the Popular Mobilization Authority draft law. The source added that the amended draft law includes provisions that would force several PMF leaders to retire, which signals that the PMF Service and Retirement draft law could have been combined into this draft law.[54] This report and an August 12 report from the same outlet both noted that Zaydi is considering changes to PMF leadership that include appointing Iraqi Army and Counter Terrorism Service officers to PMF leadership positions.[55] ISW-CTP continues to assess that Iraqi militias are unlikely to support this amended legislation as reported as it could fulfill US objectives regarding militia disarmament. The Iraqi Parliament is also unlikely to approve the amended law. Parliamentarians affiliated with Iraqi militias that control PMF brigades sit on the committee responsible for reviewing and approving the draft law before it reaches a parliamentary vote.[56] **Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah’s Security Chief Abu Mujahed al Asaf released a statement on August 29 that confirmed Kataib Hezbollah’s intentions to continue its control over its stronghold in Jurf al Sakhr, south of Baghdad.[57]**Asaf said that Kataib Hezbollah will never abandon Jurf al Sakhr and invited Sunni Sovereignty Alliance head Khamis al Khanjar to visit the area.[58] Kataib Hezbollah has refused to allow the Iraqi federal government to exercise sovereignty over Jurf al Sakhr for over a decade and has used the area to store weapons as well as launch attacks against US and foreign targets in Iraq and the region.[59] Kataib Hezbollah’s capture of the area from Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) control in late 2014 also displaced Jurf al Sakhar’s predominately Sunni residents.[60] Sunni Iraqis, including Sunni politicians, often complain about this forced displacement.[61] Khanjar responded to Asaf’s statement on August 29 by denying that any group “owned” Jurf al Sakhr and rejecting Kataib Hezbollah’s ability to “grant permission” to enter the area.[62] Asaf’s mention of Jurf al Sakhr follows Zaydi’s apparent reversal of reported plans for Iraqi security forces to retake the area following intense pressure by Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi actors.[63] **Asaf also claimed on August 29 that Popular Mobilization Commission (PMC) Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh warned Kataib Hezbollah’s leadership in advance of US-Saudi strikes on militia positions on July 28 and enabled Kataib Hezbollah to take unspecified precautionary measures.[64]**Fayyadh is responsible for ensuring that the PMF, and the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that compose it, answer to the Iraqi federal government.[65] Asaf said that Fayyadh allowed him to release this statement.[66] US-Saudi strikes on July 28 killed at least 28 PMF members.[67] Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Spokesperson Kazim al Fartousi separately denied on August 31 that Fayyadh warned the group before the strikes.[68] Iranian-backed Iraqi actors, especially those aligned with Asaib Ahl al Haq and its parliamentary bloc, continue to claim that Fayyadh had prior knowledge of the US-Saudi strikes, likely in an effort to create a political scandal that could result in Zaydi firing Fayyadh.[69] Asaib Ahl al Haq has called for Fayyadh’s removal from his position as PMC Chairman since 2024 for unclear reasons.[70] The PMF has continued to reject that Fayyadh had advanced warning.[71] ## Arabian Peninsula **The Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG)-affiliated, Saudi-backed National Resistance Forces seized a shipment of drone components intended for the Houthis from a vessel reportedly traveling from Djibouti to the Houthi-controlled Hudaydah Port on August 24.[72]**The shipment contained Chinese-produced, industrial grade wireless modems with a range of up to 12 kilometers in addition to dozens of drone engines, transmitters, and other components.[73] ROYG authorities previously seized multiple caches of electronic components that could be used for first-person view (FPV) drone production at Yemeni ports and land crossings on August 13.[74] The Houthis have historically smuggled goods through Djiboutian ports and utilized Djiboutian agents to bypass the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism, which is based in Djibouti and designed to combat Houthi smuggling operations in the Red Sea.[75] [1] [2] ; [3] ; ; [4] ; dot ir/fa/news/1405/06/09/3684989 [5] [6] [7] ; [8] [9] dot ir/fa/news/721814/ [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] ; [18] [19] [20] ; [21] ; : [22] [23] dot ir/fa/news/342473 [24] ; ; [25] ; ; dot ir/news/1064094/ [26] dot com/fa/news/1188271 [27] dot com/fa/news/1188271 [28] dot ir/fa/news/4810965 ; [29] ; [30] ; [31] dot com/news/6933324 [32] dot ir/fa/news/1391271/ ; ; dot ir/live/2265949/ [33] [34] [35] ; [36] ; [37] dot com/712347/ ; dot tv/news/international/574564/العامري-الصدام-بين-الدولة-والمقاومة-مستحيل-وتنظيم-السلاح-شأن-عراقي [38] ; [39] dot com/ar/سیاسة/تفكيك-سلاح-الفصا-ل-على-طاولة-الزيدي-مع-ال-طار-اليوم [40] dot net/english/categories/iraq/958915 ; ; ; ; [41] dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9 ; ; ; ; ; [42] dot uk/politics/خاص-إيران-تضغط-على-العراق-لطرد-الجماعات-الكردية-المعارضة ; ; dot com/news/247089/Iran-s-Ghalibaf-arrives-in-Baghdad-for-talks; dot com/ar/سیاسة/خاص-قا-ني-في-بغداد-لبحث-سلاح-الفصا-ل-ومسار-تصدير-النفط-عبر-هرمز ; dot co.uk/politics/خاص-رسائل-إيرانية-للفصائل-العراقية-عبر-قاآني-وطلب-لبغداد-بشأن-هرمز [43] dot uk/politics/خاص-إيران-تضغط-على-العراق-لطرد-الجماعات-الكردية-المعارضة [44] dot com/ar/سیاسة/بلا-ركان-ولا-مهندس-حذف-فقرات-الفيتو-ال-ميركي-تقرب-الحشد-من-الهيكلة-والتقاعد [45] dot com/ar/سیاسة/بلا-ركان-ولا-مهندس-حذف-فقرات-الفيتو-ال-ميركي-تقرب-الحشد-من-الهيكلة-والتقاعد [46] dot com/ar/سیاسة/بلا-ركان-ولا-مهندس-حذف-فقرات-الفيتو-ال-ميركي-تقرب-الحشد-من-الهيكلة-والتقاعد; ; [47] dot net/sorani/middleeast/iraq/270820253 ; [48] dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AD%D8%A8-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86 ; dot net/ar/story/825332/%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%8A ; dot com/arab-world/5121064-iraqi-pm-suspends-popular-mobilization-forces-retirement-law [49] [50] dot com/ar/سیاسة/بلا-ركان-ولا-مهندس-حذف-فقرات-الفيتو-ال-ميركي-تقرب-الحشد-من-الهيكلة-والتقاعد [51] ; dot net/english/categories/iraq/1079012 [52] dot uk/politics/خاص-قانون-الحشد-الشعبي-يعاود-الظهور-معدلاً-أمام-البرلمان-العراقي [53] dot uk/politics/خاص-قانون-الحشد-الشعبي-يعاود-الظهور-معدلاً-أمام-البرلمان-العراقي [54] dot uk/politics/خاص-قانون-الحشد-الشعبي-يعاود-الظهور-معدلاً-أمام-البرلمان-العراقي [55] dot uk/politics/خاص-قانون-الحشد-الشعبي-يعاود-الظهور-معدلاً-أمام-البرلمان-العراقي ; dot co.uk/politics/خاص-تغييرات-جوهرية-مرتقبة-داخل-الحشد-الشعبي-في-العراق [56] dot iq/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A/ ; dot news/302887-.html ; dot iq/index.php?page=details&id=7612&lang=en ; dot com/ar/سیاسة/عضو-بالدفاع-النيابية-لا-حاجة-لبقا-التحالف-ونطالب-ب-قرار-خدمة-العلم ; ; [57] [58] [59] dot com/en/14420 ; [60] [61] dot com/ar/سیاسة/الخنجر-يرد-على-الكتا-ب-جرف-الصخر-ليست-ملكا-لفصيل-حتى-يمنح-ال-ذن-بدخولها ; dot com/ar/سیاسة/ول-دخول-حكومي-لـ-جرف-الصخر-منذ-سنوات-لجنة-الزيدي-تتفقد-وضاع-الناحية [62] dot com/ar/سیاسة/الخنجر-يرد-على-الكتا-ب-جرف-الصخر-ليست-ملكا-لفصيل-حتى-يمنح-ال-ذن-بدخولها [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] dot iq/2026/07/29/حصيلة-أولية-20-شهيداً-و32-جريحاً-جراء-الاع/ [68] [69] dot com/704803/ ; [70] [71] dot net/en/story/931372 [72] ; dot 2dec.net/news83057.html [73] ; ; [74] dot com/articles/349143 ; [75] ;

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