Labour slips to 28.5% in UK Fact Check poll tracker

Labour slips to 28.5% in UK Fact Check poll tracker as Conservatives take second

Labour's share in the UK Fact Check poll tracker has slipped to 28.5%, from 29.2% a week ago, and its lead over the second-placed party has narrowed from 7.2 points to 6.3. The change follows five new polls with fieldwork ending between 9 and 12 November.

The movement is small and Labour remains the projected largest party on 190 seats, short of a majority, according to the tracker. It follows a period in which UK Fact Check reported Labour's rise stalling at 29.2%. It also contrasts with YouGov's latest poll, which gives Labour its largest lead since that pollster's tracker restarted in January 2025.

The tracker is UK Fact Check's own average of the latest 10 published polls, and its figures are not independently published. The weekly comparison is with the tracker as it stood on 8 November. The tracker's own change column, which measures against the previous 10 polls, puts Labour's fall at 1.2 points.

The party in second place has also changed, so the two lead figures are not a like-for-like comparison. A week ago Labour's lead was measured against Reform UK on 22.0%. It is now measured against the Conservatives, who have risen from 21.6% to 22.2%, while Reform UK has fallen to 21.3%. The gap for second place is 0.9 points.

The Greens have risen from 8.5% to 9.6% over the week and the Liberal Democrats from 8.0% to 9.2%.

The five new polls are split on Labour's direction, and each moved the party by a single point on the same pollster's previous survey. Labour rose to 27% with YouGov and to 31% with Deltapoll. It fell to 28% with More in Common, to 29% with Survation and to 27% with Find Out Now, whose figures are listed by the aggregator PollCheck. Survation's previous poll is dated by the tracker to 5 October, so its change covers about five weeks.

YouGov, which polled on 8 and 9 November for The Times and Sky News, described its own Labour figure as statistically unchanged. Its write-up said:

"YouGov's latest voting intention poll for The Times and Sky News shows a six point lead for Labour, who are on 27% of the vote, within the margin of error of the 26% recorded in last week's poll. This is the highest lead recorded for Labour since our voting intention tracker restarted in January 2025."

YouGov put the Conservatives on 21%, down three points, and Reform UK on 20%, which it said was the party's joint lowest share over the same period.

The individual polls also disagree on second place. YouGov and More in Common put the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK. Deltapoll and Survation put Reform UK ahead, and Find Out Now has the two parties level on 21%.

Other polling averages, each built differently, show a similar overall picture. PollCheck's seven-poll average had Labour on 28.4% on 13 November, BritPolls' five-poll average had the party on 28.0% a day later and PolitPro's weighted trend had it on 28.3% on 12 November. All three place the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Reform UK.

The UK Fact Check seat projection puts Labour on 190, the Conservatives on 148, Reform UK on 142, the Greens on 64 and the Liberal Democrats on 62. The Conservatives are therefore ahead of Reform UK on projected seats as well as vote share. UK Fact Check describes the projection as a proportional allocation rather than a forecast, but has not published its full method.

The Liberal Democrats rose with four of the five pollsters, reaching 12% with YouGov and 9% with Deltapoll. None of the five showed the Greens gaining on that pollster's previous poll. The average also moves when older polls drop out of the 10-poll window.

YouGov set its latest figures against a longer shift since the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, which Andy Burnham, now Prime Minister, won for Labour with 54.8% of the vote.

"Comparing the average of our tracker over the last month with the month prior to the Makerfield by-election shows Labour up nine points and the Conservatives up four, while the Greens are down five points, Reform UK are down four, and the Lib Dems are down two," YouGov said.