YouGov for The Times / Sky News
Reform UK leads but falls short of a majority — 159 of 650 seats on 24.0%, ahead of Labour on 22.0% (146 seats).
Hung parliament
Reform UK
24.0%
159 seats
▼ 1.0
Labour
22.0%
146 seats
▼ 6.0
Conservative
19.0%
126 seats
▲ 1.0
Green
13.0%
86 seats
▲ 1.0
Liberal Democrats
12.0%
80 seats
▲ 3.0
Restore Britain
4.0%
26 seats
▲ 4.0
Other parties
4.0%
27 seats
▲ 4.0
2 more
SNP
3.0%
20 seats
▲ 3.0
Plaid Cymru
1.0%
7 seats
▲ 1.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 22.0% | 146 |
| Conservative | 19.0% | 126 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.0% | 80 |
| Reform UK | 24.0% | 159 |
| Green | 13.0% | 86 |
| SNP | 3.0% | 20 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 7 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 4.0% | 26 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 0.0% | 0 |