Opinium for The Observer
Labour leads but falls short of a majority — 225 of 650 seats on 28.0%, ahead of Reform UK on 24.0% (193 seats).
Hung parliament
Labour
28.0%
225 seats
▲ 2.0
Reform UK
24.0%
193 seats
▲ 3.0
Conservative
18.0%
144 seats
▼ 2.0
Green
11.0%
88 seats
▼ 3.0
Projected Commons seats from this poll alone, out of 650. Seat estimates are modelled from vote share and are not a constituency-level forecast.
Full results for all parties
| Party | Vote share | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 28.0% | 225 |
| Conservative | 18.0% | 144 |
| Liberal Democrats | 0.0% | 0 |
| Reform UK | 24.0% | 193 |
| Green | 11.0% | 88 |
| SNP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 0 |
| Sinn Féin | 0.0% | 0 |
| DUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| SDLP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alba | 0.0% | 0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 0.0% | 0 |
| Other | 0.0% | 0 |