According to Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and current political commentator, Israel’s efforts to eliminate what it sees as the Iranian threat are unlikely to succeed without direct US military involvement.

“If there’s to be any de-escalation, it will have to come from the United States — though whether that happens remains uncertain,” Pinkas told Al Jazeera, noting the conflicting signals coming from former President Trump.

From Israel’s perspective, halting the fighting now would yield no tangible strategic gain. “Israel alone cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear-military infrastructure. It lacks the heavy munitions, long-range bombers, and delivery capabilities required. That’s why Prime Minister Netanyahu is so focused on drawing the US into the conflict,” Pinkas explained.

He added that the ultimate target — or “big prize” — for Israel is Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility, a highly fortified site located south of Tehran.

“Ideally, Israeli military planners would want the US to deliver the decisive blow. But they also understand that may not happen,” Pinkas concluded.