A new YouGov poll for the Times and Sky News puts Labour on 26% and the Conservatives on 24%. That is a two-point lead, far narrower than the eight points in the City AM/Freshwater poll and the nine in BMG's.
Reform UK is on 21%, the Lib Dems 11%, the Greens 10%, Restore Britain 3%, the SNP 3% and Plaid Cymru 2%. YouGov surveyed 2,355 adults in Great Britain online on 1 and 2 November.
Compared with its poll of 25 and 26 October, Labour is down one point and the Conservatives are up two. YouGov says all parties are within the margin of error of last week's figures. It also says the Conservative share is the highest since its voting-intention tracker restarted in January 2025. The Independent's headline calls it the Tories' best polling since the general election, which goes further than YouGov's own claim.
The Independent links the rise to the Budget. YouGov does not.
Polls still differ widely. PollCheck's seven-poll average, updated on 2 November, has Labour on 29.4%, Reform UK on 22.4% and the Conservatives on 21.7%.