The UK is on course to miss its already reduced aid target of 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) in 2027, according to analysis from the Centre for Global Development. The think tank says the Treasury will probably need to allocate extra money in Wednesday's Budget.
On its central reading, the CGD says the UK would fall short by £412m in 2027, with aid at just under 0.29% of GNI.
The size of the gap depends on which forecast is used. On the OBR's March 2026 forecast, GNI of £3,209bn puts 0.3% at £9.63bn, a shortfall of £0.24bn. On the average of the September independent forecasts, GNI of £3,262bn puts the target at £9.79bn, a shortfall of £0.41bn. The CGD's highest estimate is £0.58bn.
The CGD says the original 2027 aid plan was set against GNI of £3,127.9bn from the March 2025 forecast, which gave £9.38bn at 0.3%. The Guardian reports that the CGD links the gap to higher than expected inflation, which has pushed national income above the figure used in the spending review.
The CGD also says aid will already have funded over £6.5bn of defence spending in 2027. "The very least it could do is ensure that target is fulfilled," its analysis says.
These are the CGD's own estimates and have not been independently checked.