The Resolution Foundation calls the Chancellor John Healey's Budget "scattergun" in its full analysis, published on 29 October. It says typical energy bills will be higher this year than in the last price shock.
It forecasts typical annual energy bills, net of government support, at £1,750 in 2026-27. That is higher in real terms than the £1,685 net bills of 2022-23.
It says the poorest half of households gain £158 on average from cost-of-living support this year and next. The richest half gain £144. The £14 gap it cites is correct on those figures.
The think tank forecasts typical incomes to fall by £1,050, or 3%, between 2026-27 and the end of the Parliament in 2028-29. It says departments got a £9bn top-up over the spending review period, twice the £4.4bn cost of the cost-of-living package. That comparison holds, since £9bn is slightly more than double £4.4bn.
It also says eligibility for this winter's energy support rests on 35-year-old property valuations. The £100 payments go to up to 20 million households in council tax bands A to D.
Ruth Curtice, its chief executive, said:
"Cost of living support is being spread far too thinly and will leave even those families receiving help facing higher energy bills than they did during the last energy price shock."