UK FACT CHECK POLITICS
UK FACT CHECK POLITICS
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STATS From: Budget 2026 live: Latest updates, analysis and fact checks

OBR sees borrowing falling to 1.8% of GDP by 2030/31 as debt peaks at 83.8%

The OBR forecasts that borrowing falls every year from 4.2% of GDP this year to 1.8% in 2030/31, the Chancellor, John Healey, has told the Commons. On his figures it is 3.4% next year, 2.9% in 2028/29 and 2.1% in 2029/30.

Debt is forecast at 83.2% of GDP this year. It rises to 83.8% next year and stays there in 2028/29. It then falls to 83.1% in 2029/30, 82.3% in 2030/31 and 81.7% in 2031/32.

ITV reports that the OBR expects £14bn more to be spent on debt interest this year, largely because of the Middle East conflict. That matches the figure Healey gave MPs.

Healey said: "That is what a buffer is for, use it when you need it, rebuild it when you can." He also said "I believe Britain can beat the forecast again", LBC reports.

Healey's claim that the Budget puts Britain on track to eliminate the current budget deficit within three years has not been independently checked.

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