The OBR forecasts inflation will average 3.4% in 2027, according to both Reuters and PA. This settles the discrepancy noted earlier. Reuters says an earlier section of the OBR document rounded inflation projections to the nearest half percent, which explains the 3.5% figure reported by MoneyWeek.
Reuters reports that inflation is expected to peak at 3.75% in early 2027. The OBR forecasts an average of 3.1% this year, 2.1% in 2028 and 2029, and 2% in 2030.
The Telegraph reports that the OBR now expects real household disposable income per person to fall by 0.4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027. In March, the OBR had expected growth of 0.4% a year.
This is a per person measure, so it is not directly comparable with the 0.6% squeeze in real household disposable income this year reported earlier.