The OBR has confirmed headroom of £15bn against the fiscal stability rule in 2029/30, the Chancellor, John Healey, has told the Commons. He said it rises to £22bn in 2030/31. That is down from £23.6bn in March and matches Newsquawk's £15bn pre-Budget estimate.
The OBR raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%, from 1.1% in March, but cut 2027 from 1.6% to 1.0%, investingLive reports. It left 2028 at 1.6% and raised 2029 to 1.8% and 2030 to 1.7%, both from 1.5%. It forecasts 1.6% for 2031.
Healey said the OBR "has upgraded its forecast too to 1.2% this year". That holds for this year, and for 2029 and 2030. It does not hold for next year. The cut of 0.6 percentage points for 2027 is the largest change in the forecast.
The deficit is forecast at 4.2% of GDP this year and 3.4% next year, according to investingLive. Borrowing in 2030/31 is put at 1.8% of GDP, above the 1.6% forecast in March. A summary of the speech by SPY News says debt peaks at 83.8% of GDP next year and in 2028/29, then falls to 81.7% in 2031/32.
Healey said the government will spend an extra £14bn on debt interest this year. He also said the Budget puts Britain on track to eliminate the current budget deficit within three years. Neither claim has been independently checked.