The OBR's Budget forecasts show the tax burden reaching a record 37.9% of GDP in 2027/28, according to Brit Brief. That bears on the claim by Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, that next year's tax burden "will be the highest in our country's history".
Brit Brief reports the OBR forecasting the tax burden as follows:
- 36.0% of GDP in 2025/26
- 37.9% of GDP in 2027/28, a new record
- 38.6% of GDP in 2031/32, the peak
If "next year" means the 2027/28 financial year, these figures support Ms Badenoch's claim. They have not yet been checked against the OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
Brit Brief's peak of 38.6% does not match the figure reported earlier by ING. Citing the OBR, ING put the tax take at a record 42.9% of GDP by 2031-32. The reason for the difference has not been established.