The OBR now expects 190,000 fewer homes to be built by 2032 than it forecast in March, according to BBC analysis by Dharshini David published this evening.
She says the downgrade is down to regulation and higher costs, which she links partly to the war.
Dharshini David says the Chancellor, John Healey, has bought himself breathing space but put off big questions. That is especially true of public services, where she says keeping budgets up in 2030 would mean finding tens of billions of pounds. She describes the Budget as containing 98 "relatively small" measures and writes that "the to-do list gets longer".
The 190,000 figure has not yet been checked against the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.