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From: Budget 2026 live: Latest updates, analysis and fact checks

OBR expected to forecast another post-war record tax burden, Guido Fawkes reports

Guido Fawkes reports that the OBR is expected to forecast another post-war record tax burden, driven by the freeze on income tax thresholds.

The claim appears in the site's Budget-day summary of Treasury briefings from recent weeks. It is not a Treasury statement. No figure for the size of the tax burden, or the year it would cover, has been confirmed, and the claim has not been independently checked.

The same summary repeats briefings that the Chancellor's headroom against his fiscal rules has fallen to about £15bn, down from £23bn, after the hit from the Iran war.

The OBR publishes its Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside the Budget, which the Chancellor, John Healey, delivers to the Commons today. Its tax burden forecast will be published then.

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