UK FACT CHECK POLITICS
UK FACT CHECK POLITICS
Voting intention Labour Lab 27% Con Con 22% Reform Ref 20% Lib Dem LD 11% Green Grn 10% Poll tracker
Menu
Account
From: Budget 2026 live: Latest updates, analysis and fact checks

OBR cuts 2027 growth forecast to 1% and says household incomes will fall

We report that the Office for Budget Responsibility has cut its forecast for UK growth next year to 1% and expects household incomes to fall. Its report was published alongside John Healey's first Budget as Chancellor.

The OBR now expects real household disposable income per person to fall by an average of 0.4% a year in 2026 and 2027. In March it had forecast a rise of 0.4% a year. It blames higher energy prices from the war in the Middle East.

Borrowing is forecast at £133bn this year, almost £18bn above March's projection.

Read more in our report, OBR cuts 2027 growth forecast to 1% and warns household incomes will fall.

Back to Budget 2026 live: Latest updates, analysis and fact checks