The Chancellor, John Healey, is unlikely to get a £25bn gain from better productivity assumptions at the Budget, according to analysis published by City AM on 20 October.
The paper says the OBR's judgement on trend productivity is again central to the Budget, which Healey delivers to the Commons on Wednesday 28 October. It suggests he may still have some upside to point to.
Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank, is quoted by City AM saying "more credibility" attaches to "upside" scenarios on growth.
City AM recalls that the OBR had assumed productivity growth of 1.3% a year before last year's Budget.
This is City AM's analysis and not a decision by the OBR. The basis for the £25bn figure has not been independently checked.