The Chancellor, John Healey, told the Commons that borrowing falls to 1.8% of GDP in 2030/31 and stays at that level in 2031/32, according to LBC's account of his Budget statement. He put the headroom at £22bn in 2030/31, up from £15bn in 2029/30.
- 2026/27: 4.2% of GDP
- 2027/28: 3.4%
- 2028/29: 2.9%
- 2029/30: 2.1%
- 2030/31: 1.8%
- 2031/32: 1.8%
The figures for the first two years hold up against the record. They match the OBR's deficit forecasts reported earlier, of 4.2% of GDP this year and 3.4% next year.
The £15bn headroom for 2029/30 is the Treasury's rounded figure. The Resolution Foundation puts it at £14.5bn.
Briefs.co, citing the OBR, reports that the Budget measures add £7.6bn to borrowing this year and reduce it by £11.7bn by 2031/32.
The Resolution Foundation says borrowing is higher in every year than forecast in March, by an average of £13bn. It says the Budget raises total borrowing over five years by an average of £2bn a year.